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Scottish Independence


Gardian
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This is getting a bit serious now, with the refendum just one week away.

I have no say in the matter, being neither a Scot nor even a UK resident, although I happen to believe that the Scots would be bonkers to say "Yes".

That said, I have tried but so far failed to establish the answer to what I believe is a crucial question.

It is whether there would automatically cease to be any Scottish constituency MP's at Westminster? To me, its a no-brainer, but nobody seems to want to mention it.
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My thoughts also and it's impossible to see how Scottish  MP's could continue to serve in England.

As a side issue since the majority of them are Labour it could pose a bit of a problem for Ed Milliband come general election time, I suspect that may be his motivation for supporting the No camp.

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[quote user="Gardian"]This is getting a bit serious now, with the refendum just one week away. I have no say in the matter, being neither a Scot nor even a UK resident, although I happen to believe that the Scots would be bonkers to say "Yes". That said, I have tried but so far failed to establish the answer to what I believe is a crucial question. It is whether there would automatically cease to be any Scottish constituency MP's at Westminster? To me, its a no-brainer, but nobody seems to want to mention it.[/quote]

On the Politics Show they said that after 'Independence Day' in 2016 all MP's that represented Scottish constituencies would not be able to sit in the H of C. I suspect it will also be the same for the H of L as well.

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This has been mentioned elsewhere, and on the media, from a few weeks ago.

Currently there are 40 or 41 Scottish Labour MPs in the House of Commons. Only one Conservative MP.

Unless Milliband and his party put a lot of work in it seems England will be ruled by the Conservatives, with little competition, ad infinitum.

The question that follows is, if this is so, why is Cameron so keen to have the Scots stay?

Something to do with Scotland sharing the national debt  perhaps?

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Its why Cameron is going to do an extra year. The next (general) election is in 2015 but if there is a yes vote and the Scottish PM's leave the H of C in 2016 there would have to be another election according to Andrew Neil today, quite why was not really explained. It would therefore be a bit silly to have two general elections over two years.

What I would like to know is if it all starts going wrong after the Yes vote and they decide they want to return 'to the fold' will we have a referendum in the UK about letting them back coz I know what my answer would be.

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[quote user="Quillan"]What I would like to know is if it all starts going wrong after the Yes vote and they decide they want to return 'to the fold' will we have a referendum in the UK about letting them back coz I know what my answer would be.[/quote]It's a one way street (a dead end some might say) so the question of returning to the fold does not arise.

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[quote user="Patf"]This has been mentioned elsewhere, and on the media, from a few weeks ago.
Currently there are 40 or 41 Scottish Labour MPs in the House of Commons. Only one Conservative MP.
Unless Milliband and his party put a lot of work in it seems England will be ruled by the Conservatives, with little competition, ad infinitum.
The question that follows is, if this is so, why is Cameron so keen to have the Scots stay?
Something to do with Scotland sharing the national debt  perhaps?
[/quote]The old myth. In fact only in 1964 and 1974 did a labour government need the Scottish labour MPs to have a majority. 1959 was the first general election when the conservatives weren't the largest party in Scotland. Tony Blair had a comfortable English majority in all three of his election wins so regardless of the result of the referendum I don't see a long succession of Conservative governments unless Labour goes down its suicide route of the Thatcher years
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[quote user="Quillan"]

Its why Cameron is going to do an extra year. The next (general) election is in 2015 but if there is a yes vote and the Scottish PM's leave the H of C in 2016 there would have to be another election according to Andrew Neil today, quite why was not really explained. It would therefore be a bit silly to have two general elections over two years.

What I would like to know is if it all starts going wrong after the Yes vote and they decide they want to return 'to the fold' will we have a referendum in the UK about letting them back coz I know what my answer would be.

[/quote]

I think it should be made very clear...no way back

Also I suspect even died in the woll Conservatives can see that to be effective parliament needs an effective opposition...I fear we may be doomed to coalition governments for evermore if there is a Yes vote.

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Issues that concern me: intimidation on voting day as Salmond has been using thugs to disrupt and intimidate, particularly in the Glasgow west, if it is a NO, violence from the extreme Scots Nats and the violent unemployable , benefit dwelling Left which prevails in some areas.

The whole campaign has been about maybe 50000 Gaelic speakers and fanatical Scots Nats and left wingers who do not accept any democratic government of the UK which is right of Castro.

A nasty, filthy campaign by the Nats, led by Salmond who is not better than a Scargillish yob.

The Scots deserve better, but better together if we must.
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[quote user="Russethouse"][quote user="Quillan"]

Its why Cameron is going to do an extra year. The next (general) election is in 2015 but if there is a yes vote and the Scottish PM's leave the H of C in 2016 there would have to be another election according to Andrew Neil today, quite why was not really explained. It would therefore be a bit silly to have two general elections over two years.

What I would like to know is if it all starts going wrong after the Yes vote and they decide they want to return 'to the fold' will we have a referendum in the UK about letting them back coz I know what my answer would be.

[/quote]

I think it should be made very clear...no way back

Also I suspect even died in the woll Conservatives can see that to be effective parliament needs an effective opposition...I fear we may be doomed to coalition governments for evermore if there is a Yes vote.[/quote]

But the Conservatives have had the Lib Dems as opposition throughout their stay this time, a sort of viper in the bosom every time they wanted to get down to business, eg on uncontrolled immigration.
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There's effectively an odd sort of coalition going on anyway, with the national interests of Wales, Ireland and Scotland being represented in the current iteration of parliament. Which is as it should be...but I admit I've never really grasped why it should be that England has never been allowed to have its own devolved government when  each of the UK nations has some form of devolution as well. The current arrangement is the equivalent of admitting that parliament is, indeed, England-centric.

It would be nice to imagine that, if the outcome next week is in favour of Scots independence, the peoples of England, Ireland and Wales will be entitled to a say in what they think should be conceded to Scotland in the divorce.

And I do wish the people of Scotland would wake up and realise that they didn't invent, nor do they have a monopoly on "national identity".

It'll be a laugh if Shetland decides not to go with Scotland.....

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I think the problem of having large numbers of Scottish MPs sitting in the Commons (regardless of what party they represent) is the fact that they can vote on England only issues, where the area concerned has been devolved to the Scottish Government and where the UK Parliament has no say.

That is a big injustice.
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To be honest and I know some will not like the idea but to me the logical way would to federalise the UK with representatives of each state sitting in the Lords and each state having its own parliament. While we are doing that we can also make the UK a secular state which may help stop a lot of other problems.
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Salmond, the Pied Piper of Scotland. I hope they do vote yes but I shall be bl*%dy annoyed if currency union then takes place.

It would be great to see Salmond, as Mr Plan A Only, with egg and maybe even more on his face when it transpires that the untold riches turn to untold poverty and the residents of Scotland will only have themselves to blame.
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I have no problem with Scotland wanting independence, if they vote for it then good luck to them.

However, I am concerned that if the vote is 'No' then there will be a violent reaction from the 'yes' camp against the so-called 'traitors' ( as they will be called by the yes campaigners).

My own view is that if no independence is the majority vote then Scotland should be treated exactly the same as England, no special deals, no special allowances, no devolution at all. In fact, scrap the Scottish Parliament, or create an English Parliament and give England the same treatment as Scotland gets at the moment.
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The UK side may have missed a trick, The other countries in the union should have had a referendum to, I think the Scots would like to know how much we might miss them from the ordinary folk not the MP's.

It's all Mel Gibson's fault, it was just a film with hideous inaccuracies not a party political broadcast. [:)]

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As a Scot living in England (and therefore no vote) I would like to comment on what I perceive as arrogance on behalf of Cameron and the Better Together campaign.

I can only assume that they thought a No victory was a foregone conclusion that led them to omit “Devo Max” from the ballot paper. It seems highly likely that that Devo Max would have been by far the most popular choice of those entitled to vote. They also got bogged down on the currency question which has come down to which politician do you mistrust the least. Their over confidence in the result now leads to the real possibility that a major constitutional change can occur on the basis of a handful of votes.  A single vote majority for Yes will split the UK.

Those voting for independence also do not know the terms that will be negotiated so they also are taking a massive leap in the dark. The final terms may not be what Salmond has spelled out in his manifesto.

One thing is certain. A Yes result will trigger a drop in the pound at least in the short term and could derail the UK recovery which will affect people on both sides of the border.

At the start of the campaign I was firmly in the No camp but now I look at the arrogance and incompetence and I despair. Perhaps emigration from the UK is the best solution [:D]

 

 

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We shall certainly find out next week won't we.

If the vote is for an independent Scotland, I would have the scottish MP's out of the HofC immediately, in fact, since they have had their own Parliament, I would NOT have allowed them a vote on things that concerned England. Even if there is a 'no' vote, I want that to happen. Talk about cake and eating it!

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I, like most sensible people, don't think that MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should vote on purely English matters. However this was the decision of the predominately English parliament and it is for that Parliament to change the rules.

Personally I would like to see devolved regional parliaments in England but that is a matter that should be decided by the people of those regions. IMO many of the problems in the UK are due to the fact that the country is so Londoncentric and things would only improve if people in the regions had more say. It hopefully would lead to people feeling less distanced from the democratic process and voting turnout would go up making the whole process more relevant.

There should still be a UK parliament for matters such as Defence which affect the whole country and other areas that have not been devolved. The powers devolved should be the same for all regions, Scotland included.

Regardless of the result next Thursday these are issues that need to be resolved as soon as possible. Let us hope that those making the decisions do what is best for the country as a whole and not for some petty partisan advantage.

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[quote user="Rabbie"].........

One thing is certain. A Yes result will trigger a drop in the pound at least in the short term and could derail the UK recovery which will affect people on both sides of the border.

.......[:D]

 [/quote]

I am not at all sure that what you say is certain. A Yes vote will most likely trigger a drop in the value of sterling, but that could very well stimulate the UK recovery: it would make UK goods and services cheaper in international markets, and in principle at least that would increase demand for them. There's an effect on imports too, of course, but normally devaluation improves the balance of payments.

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[quote user="Araucaria"][quote user="Rabbie"].........

One thing is certain. A Yes result will trigger a drop in the pound at least in the short term and could derail the UK recovery which will affect people on both sides of the border.

.......[:D]

 [/quote]


I am not at all sure that what you say is certain. A Yes vote will most likely trigger a drop in the value of sterling, but that could very well stimulate the UK recovery: it would make UK goods and services cheaper in international markets, and in principle at least that would increase demand for them. There's an effect on imports too, of course, but normally devaluation improves the balance of payments.

[/quote]you could be right. I was influenced by some expert on the radio who felt that uncertainty had an unsettling effect on the markets and on the UK economy as a whole. Hopefully there won't be a yes vote so we will never find out which of us was right.
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