Jump to content

Election 2015


Gardian
 Share

Recommended Posts

I really think that we are giong to have to look at the electoral system. I don't blame the SNP for flexing it's muscles, but if you remember that there are fewer people in Scotland than there are in Yorkshire it does seem rather unfair.

Hoddy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 94
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

DUN Wrote:

On french news tonight, this was said. That IF the britanniques vote

to pull out of the EU after a referendum, then they supposed that

Scotland would want a further referendum to see if they still wanted to

be part of the United Kingdom and if not, would become independent and

remain in the EU.

What a statement

................

Unquote

Idun,

I am surprised by your surprise. The SNP has always been pro the

EU, and IF les britanniques were to vote as a whole to withdraw, I think

that might well create the catalyst for a demand for a new referendum

in Scotland.

Based on current support for the SNP I could well imagine that a

repeat referendum could have a very different result in those

circumstances.

What will be interesting over the next few years is to see how the Scots react to having a single party state

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My surprise was that the french were discussing it, on the main news, the day after the election. Did the french people need advanced notice of what 'might' happen en Angleterre?

 I had thought that IF Scotland had voted for independence, then it was not at all sure that they would have had automatic access to the EU anyway.

As I said, interesting times ahead really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Rabbie"][quote user="Pickles"][quote user="Rabbie"]So did the voters in Scotland. Are you really saying that voters in Scotland are worth less than voters in other parts of the UK.[/quote]

Nope, but opposition party MPs per se have less influence on what policies are enacted than MPs who are in government. Those voters that ended up represented by opposition party MPs, wherever in the UK thay are, are being represented by MPs who have less influence.

[quote user="Rabbie"]Surely all MPs should have some influence or what is the point of electing and paying them regardless of where they represent.[/quote]

I gained the impression from the outpourings of various SNP politicians and supporters that they were bargaining on getting what I would consider to be an undue and excessive influence as part of a coalition. Compared with that situation, the SNP at Westminster is now just another opposition party with little influence. Much like Labour.

[/quote]It rather makes a nonsense of  democracy that the representatives of approx 36% of the voters should have more influence than the representatives of the remaining 64%. It is also a nonsense that UKIP with 12% only have one MP while the SNP get 56 MPs with only 5% of the votes.  And no I am not a UKIP or SNP supporter but it does highlight the need for a fairer electoral system but of course the larger parties are always going to block meaningful reform.[/quote]

I agree with you absolutely, but when the public WAS given the opportunity to change the system not very long ago, they voted overwhelmingly to stay with what is misleadingly called First Past The Post. I felt that the case for some form of PR was appallingly badly presented, whereas the incumbent FPTP system was presented via a very slick but utterly content-less campaign.

According to the Electoral Reform Society, under PR the results would have been:

CON 244

LAB 201

UKIP 83

LD 52

SNP 31

Greens 25

DUP 3

PC 3

SF 3

UUP 2

SDLP 2

Alliance 1

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Hoddy"]I really think that we are giong to have to look at the electoral system. I don't blame the SNP for flexing it's muscles, but if you remember that there are fewer people in Scotland than there are in Yorkshire it does seem rather unfair. Hoddy[/quote]A quick search on Google suggests the populations are approximately the same size. Of course the actual numbers are changing all the time as people move in, move out, are born or die. A possible solution to the "West Lothian Question" would be to give the regions of England their own devolved parliaments with similar powers to those in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This would mean the UK parliament would only need to decide such issues as defence and foreign policy and could be reduced in size.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="idun"]DUN Wrote:

On french news tonight, this was said. That IF the britanniques vote to pull out of the EU after a referendum, then they supposed that Scotland would want a further referendum to see if they still wanted to be part of the United Kingdom and if not, would become independent and remain in the EU.

What a statement

................

Unquote



Idun,
I am surprised by your surprise. The SNP has always been pro the EU, and IF les britanniques were to vote as a whole to withdraw, I think that might well create the catalyst for a demand for a new referendum in Scotland.

Based on current support for the SNP I could well imagine that a repeat referendum could have a very different result in those circumstances.

What will be interesting over the next few years is to see how the Scots react to having a single party state





---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My surprise was that the french were discussing it, on the main news, the day after the election. Did the french people need advanced notice of what 'might' happen en Angleterre?

 I had thought that IF Scotland had voted for independence, then it was not at all sure that they would have had automatic access to the EU anyway.

As I said, interesting times ahead really.


[/quote]The main opposition to automatic Scottish EU membership came from Spain who have issues with both the Basque region and Catalonia having fairly strong independence movements.

If  Scottish independence were to follow on from a British exit from the EU there might well be a strong desire from France and Germany to keep Scotland in the EU.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Pickles"][quote user="Rabbie"][quote user="Pickles"][quote user="Rabbie"]So did the voters in Scotland. Are you really saying that voters in Scotland are worth less than voters in other parts of the UK.[/quote]
Nope, but opposition party MPs per se have less influence on what policies are enacted than MPs who are in government. Those voters that ended up represented by opposition party MPs, wherever in the UK thay are, are being represented by MPs who have less influence.
[quote user="Rabbie"]Surely all MPs should have some influence or what is the point of electing and paying them regardless of where they represent.[/quote]
I gained the impression from the outpourings of various SNP politicians and supporters that they were bargaining on getting what I would consider to be an undue and excessive influence as part of a coalition. Compared with that situation, the SNP at Westminster is now just another opposition party with little influence. Much like Labour.
[/quote]It rather makes a nonsense of  democracy that the representatives of approx 36% of the voters should have more influence than the representatives of the remaining 64%. It is also a nonsense that UKIP with 12% only have one MP while the SNP get 56 MPs with only 5% of the votes.  And no I am not a UKIP or SNP supporter but it does highlight the need for a fairer electoral system but of course the larger parties are always going to block meaningful reform.[/quote]
I agree with you absolutely, but when the public WAS given the opportunity to change the system not very long ago, they voted overwhelmingly to stay with what is misleadingly called First Past The Post. I felt that the case for some form of PR was appallingly badly presented, whereas the incumbent FPTP system was presented via a very slick but utterly content-less campaign.

According to the Electoral Reform Society, under PR the results would have been:

CON 244
LAB 201
UKIP 83
LD 52
SNP 31
Greens 25
DUP 3
PC 3
SF 3
UUP 2
SDLP 2
Alliance 1

 
[/quote]Looking at those suggested results then the most likely outcome would be a Con/UKIP coalition which would have had a very small majority. Of course if there had been a PR system in place the smaller parties might well have picked up more support since people would not need to vote tactically.

I did vote for a change in the voting system in the referendum but  both labour and the conservatives put their support behind keeping the present system which they both benefit from.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To add to Pickles post:

SNP has 56 seats with 1,454,436 votes

LD has 8 seats with 2,415,888 votes

UKIP has 1 seat with 3,881,129

Plaid Cymru has 3 seats with 181,694 votes

- yes one hundred and eighty one thousand and six hundred and ninety four votes gives them 3 seats.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="PaulT"]To add to Pickles post: SNP has 56 seats with 1,454,436 votes LD has 8 seats with 2,415,888 votes UKIP has 1 seat with 3,881,129 Plaid Cymru has 3 seats with 181,694 votes - yes one hundred and eighty one thousand and six hundred and ninety four votes gives them 3 seats.[/quote]This just illustrates the downside of the "First past the post" system. The upside of the system is that we have a Conservative government that is not dependent on UKIP support. The present system effectively disenfranchises the large number of voters who live in safe seats.

An attempt to change the system was rejected by a large majority of the electorate  so those of us who would like a changed system must respect the wishes of the majority on this.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="PaulT"]To add to Pickles post:

SNP has 56 seats with 1,454,436 votes

LD has 8 seats with 2,415,888 votes

UKIP has 1 seat with 3,881,129

Plaid Cymru has 3 seats with 181,694 votes

- yes one hundred and eighty one thousand and six hundred and ninety four votes gives them 3 seats.[/quote]

Surely this is just a function of vote distribution. The SNP votes were restricted to the 59 seats in Scotland, PC was restricted to Wales, whereas Ukip and the Greens were spread all over England, Wales and Scotland.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Rabbie"]

If  Scottish independence were to follow on from a British exit from the EU there might well be a strong desire from France and Germany to keep Scotland in the EU.

 

[/quote]

Do you have any source for this statement and on what basis do you assume an exit vote by the British electorate?

According to the ONS (mid 2013) the population of Scotland is estimated at just over 5 million and the total for the UK as a whole is just over 64 million. The reason that there are so many MPs in Scotland reflects the fact that the population is so sparsely spread outside of the main conurbations.

PR is traditionally brought up by minor parties who have elected MPs but then realise they have no voice in government.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote PaulT:

SNP has 56 seats with 1,454,436 votes

LD has 8 seats with 2,415,888 votes

UKIP has 1 seat with 3,881,129

Plaid Cymru has 3 seats with 181,694 votes

- yes one hundred and eighty one thousand and six hundred and ninety four votes gives them 3 seats.

Quote Thiebault

Surely this is just a function of vote distribution. The SNP votes were restricted to the 59 seats in Scotland, PC was restricted to Wales, whereas Ukip and the Greens were spread all over England, Wales and Scotland.

End quotes

If you do a little bit of maths then the following votes got each seat:

SNP 25,972

LD 301,986

UKIP 3,881,129

Plaid Cymru 60,564

Yes, a function of first past the post. In addition, apathy with people not voting.

I suppose the two largest parties are Conservative and Labour. Now, supporters of these parties will not want Proportional Representation because their parties will never again get at least 326 votes to govern without forming a coalition. With PC all citizens will get representation but when the majority are Conservatives or Labour it will never happen.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Benjamin"][quote user="Rabbie"]


If  Scottish independence were to follow on from a British exit from the EU there might well be a strong desire from France and Germany to keep Scotland in the EU.

 

[/quote]

Do you have any source for this statement and on what basis do you assume an exit vote by the British electorate?

According to the ONS (mid 2013) the population of Scotland is estimated at just over 5 million and the total for the UK as a whole is just over 64 million. The reason that there are so many MPs in Scotland reflects the fact that the population is so sparsely spread outside of the main conurbations.

PR is traditionally brought up by minor parties who have elected MPs but then realise they have no voice in government.




[/quote]Benjamin, I was merely putting forward a possible scenario for the remarks Idun quoted from French TV. I did not assume an exit vote by the UK but it might well happen. Certainly some members of this forum seem to support it.

Of course PR is brought up by the smaller parties. The larger parties have nothing to gain so change won't happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="DerekJ"]Just my view of course but.....
I get the impression that the vast majority of Scottish voters wanted to vote for separation at the referendum but in the end a large number chickened out of actually taking the plunge and standing on their own.
Now, at this General Election, they can vote with their hearts and go the SNP route with no danger of having to expose themselves to the possible dangers of independence and going it alone.
[/quote]A nice theory but not borne out by the facts.

Total Yes votes in the referendum 1,617,989

Total SNP votes in this election     1,454,454

So I don't see any evidence for any No voters voting for the SNP this time around.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Rabbie"]Total Yes votes in the referendum 1,617,989

Total SNP votes in this election     1,454,454

So I don't see any evidence for any No voters voting for the SNP this time around.[/quote]

Indeed. All the SNP needed to win was for the the ex-No vote to be split - and it was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Rabbie"]

[quote user="DerekJ"]Just my view of course but.....

I get the impression that the vast majority of Scottish voters wanted to vote for separation at the referendum but in the end a large number chickened out of actually taking the plunge and standing on their own.

Now, at this General Election, they can vote with their hearts and go the SNP route with no danger of having to expose themselves to the possible dangers of independence and going it alone.

[/quote]A nice theory but not borne out by the facts.

Total Yes votes in the referendum 1,617,989

Total SNP votes in this election     1,454,454

So I don't see any evidence for any No voters voting for the SNP this time around.

 

 

[/quote]

I understand your point and I concede that my view is primarily based on TV interviews conducted with Scottish voters at the time of the referendum. Just about everyone that I saw interviewed either wanted nothing to do with England or said that they thought they would be better off/less exposed financially by staying in the Union. Just about none of those I saw interviewed expressed any real personal bond with those of us south of the border.  Not a scientific analysis I know but enough to influence my view.

Now, as far as numbers go... another way to look at them is...

Referendum Yes Vote - 44.7% of those that voted.

General Election SNP share of those that voted - 50%

To me that says that the SNP did increase their share of the vote.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="DerekJ"][quote user="Rabbie"]

[quote user="DerekJ"]Just my view of course but.....
I get the impression that the vast majority of Scottish voters wanted to vote for separation at the referendum but in the end a large number chickened out of actually taking the plunge and standing on their own.
Now, at this General Election, they can vote with their hearts and go the SNP route with no danger of having to expose themselves to the possible dangers of independence and going it alone.
[/quote]A nice theory but not borne out by the facts.

Total Yes votes in the referendum 1,617,989

Total SNP votes in this election     1,454,454

So I don't see any evidence for any No voters voting for the SNP this time around.

 

 

[/quote]

I understand your point and I concede that my view is primarily based on TV interviews conducted with Scottish voters at the time of the referendum. Just about everyone that I saw interviewed either wanted nothing to do with England or said that they thought they would be better off/less exposed financially by staying in the Union. Just about none of those I saw interviewed expressed any real personal bond with those of us south of the border.  Not a scientific analysis I know but enough to influence my view.

Now, as far as numbers go... another way to look at them is...

Referendum Yes Vote - 44.7% of those that voted.
General Election SNP share of those that voted - 50%
To me that says that the SNP did increase their share of the vote.
[/quote]Derek, I quite agree that the SNP increased their share of the vote but as the turnout was down compared to the referendum it suggests to me that more Yes voters bothered to turnout in the general election than No voters and not that there was a swing from No voters to vote for the SNP but to be honest none of us really knows. Hoddy's suggestion that the No vote was split 3 ways is the most likely explanation of the SNP surge. Fortunately with the proportional system in place for the Scottish Parliament this result is unlikely to be repeated next spring.

In my experience there is much less anti-English feeling in Scotland than there is anti-immigrant feeling in Southern England - much of it based on misconceptions about the actual numbers involved.

You must remember that the people you hear quoted on TV are not necessarily representative of  the country as a whole and may have been selected by someone with their own political agenda. We all know that most voters vote according to what will be best for them and it would be unrealistic to expect people to vote entirely on altruistic grounds. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rabbie wrote " In my experience there is much less anti-English feeling in Scotland

than there is anti-immigrant feeling in Southern England - much of it

based on misconceptions about the actual numbers involved."

Wrong in two ways Rabbie,  your experience doesn't stand up; due to the fact that the population of England is huge compared to Scotland; so pro-rata there's bound to be more instance of anti feeling.

Secondly try being English and working as I did in Scotland many times, and seeing printed notices in phone boxes and on walls saying F*****g English B*****ds coming up here and taking our jobs, and  constantly hearing the same verbally in pubs, etc. Having said that I loved Scotland and the normal people I met and worked with; who were extremely hospitable and may I say protective, because they realised that if we weren't there; then the temporary jobs we brought with us wouldn't have been available, but that didn't work for the knuckle draggers, who left me with the feeling that I met more racism, if there is such a word? than I experienced in any other country that I worked in, and I worked in plenty.[:(]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="Hoddy"]I strongly agree with Hereford's endorsement of P J O'Rourke's thoughts on the election expressed on Radio 4 this morning. It's easily the best I've heard.

Hoddy[/quote]

I don't know if there is a conspiracy to silence him but when I try to listen it starts an episode of Question Time, even though his talk is clearly indicated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[quote user="NickP"]Rabbie wrote " In my experience there is much less anti-English feeling in Scotland than there is anti-immigrant feeling in Southern England - much of it based on misconceptions about the actual numbers involved."

Wrong in two ways Rabbie,  your experience doesn't stand up; due to the fact that the population of England is huge compared to Scotland; so pro-rata there's bound to be more instance of anti feeling.

Secondly try being English and working as I did in Scotland many times, and seeing printed notices in phone boxes and on walls saying F*****g English B*****ds coming up here and taking our jobs, and  constantly hearing the same verbally in pubs, etc. Having said that I loved Scotland and the normal people I met and worked with; who were extremely hospitable and may I say protective, because they realised that if we weren't there; then the temporary jobs we brought with us wouldn't have been available, but that didn't work for the knuckle draggers, who left me with the feeling that I met more racism, if there is such a word? than I experienced in any other country that I worked in, and I worked in plenty.[:(]
[/quote]NickP,  unfortunately everywhere has its share of morons but I am cheered up by the fact that you did have a good experience with ordinary people. As you can imagine I do not associate with the knuckle draggers but with the vast majority of ordinary people so have not come across the racial abuse you suffered from..

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My experience in the early 80s of being a visitng Englishman in North Wales is such that I will not and have not visited North Wales since. So much for an area that relies on tourism for their economy.

Experienced less in Scotland but it was extremely blatant in a restaurant in Sutherland that I once visited. Nice that a service industry is doing so well that it can alienate people from another part of the UK. Perhaps Hadrian had the right idea.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

How touching. Nigel (I'm a man of my word) Farage has withdrawn his resignation as leader after the humble representations of the Ukip executive implored him to remain.

This contrasts with his latest book where he suggested that it would be impossible to be a leader of a political party and not have a seat in the Commons........
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...