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Are we about to see how well an EX ..EU country will get on ?


Frederick
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For many Greeks, it is about security and modernity. It’s a hard thing to let go, despite the damage it had done to them.

I wasnt aware that to date their had been anyone in Greece who had lost out from their joining the Euro.

At the exit yes but overall will the country be worse off than if it had never joined the EU?

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To my untutored eye, by the time that the exit from the euro occurs, I suspect that the amount of personal savings in Greek banks will have dropped to pretty much zero, having been shipped to bank accounts in other countries or stuffed into mattresses. The ECB will take a big hit since it seems to be the only thing keeping the Greek banks from going bankrupt.

In any case, they will only be leaving the Euro zone, not the EU.

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I imagine this report will just about guarantee

Greece is gone !

German tabloid Bild just gave the financial markets a jolt, by reporting that Greece wants to delay its €1.6bn IMF repayment until the end of this year.

It says:

According to information obtained by Bild, Greece doesn’t want to pay back any of the June debt instalments to the IMF. It wants to postpone the repayments of the €1.55bn repayment due in June by six months.
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Gosh your 'headline' is nearly as bad as some I have seen in The Guardian. They may well leave the Euro but not the EU. What will happen to them after they leave the Euro is anyones guess but I suspect it will not be very good. It is not as if they can leave within a week or even a month as it will take some time to recreate their old currency. The other issue they have is raising money to pay their huge public sector workforce and their very high pension costs without trying to borrow money which they will find very difficult after all if you go bankrupt, which is what they are doing, who will lend you money and if they do what will be the security and the interest rate? It will of course hurt the Euro because effectively the debt will have to be written off but the Euro can and will survive.
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Putin already said he wouldn't help but supposing he did, it would be like stepping out of the frying pan straight into the fire.

As to the Greeks, well they lied through their teeth to join both the EU and the Euro. Three atemps and then the EU gave in and let them join knowing full well they had cooked the books so both parties share some blame. This is probably why the EU has been soft with them when really they should have thrown them out of both the Euro and the EU a long time ago. I have no sympathy for the Greeks, you reap what you sow or in this case sent out the country to hidden bank accounts or hidden under the bed and not a penny (sorry cent) of tax has been paid by anyone. Are they that stupid not to have seen this coming!

I should add that the only Greeks I would have sympathy with are those that have worked and paid all their taxes, if you can find one that is.

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I saw in my paper this morning that 74% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro. Possibly this is because if Greece reverts to the Drachma they will have to exchange their stash of Euros thus alerting the authorities to how much they have.

IMO the Greek problem can only be solved by Greece implementing structural reforms and a significant part of the debt being written off. I do not think either of these is likely to happen. The greeks seem very opposed to reform and it would not be fair on countries like Ireland that have to a very large extent solved their problems. Besides it would act as a bad example to any Eurozone country running into difficulties in the future.

 

 

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The Greeks want to have le beurre et l'argent du beurre: they have excellent conditions for early retirement at 55 as well as a huge civil service which is highly inefficient.

Brussels has asked them to sort this by changing the early retirement age and by cutting the civil service substantially.

In addition, they want Greece to implement VAT on cartain goods and services whcih are presently either untaxed or at a very low rate.

The Greeks want to keep their perks and remain in the euro.

Sorry luvvies, but it aint on.

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Greece also has a huge Armed forces and spends more on arms (relative to GDP) of any EU country.

Who do they think they are going to war with?  Turkey?

Seems to me they could cut back on the army, end mandatory conscription and save some of the €7 billion every year

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How much of all this is just a question of money ?

How much is about the tail wagging the dog and a need for the masters of the EU to make sure to all the

other small member countries ,that when it comes to tail wagging dog ... they know the other end bites ? .
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What is really going through the minds of the decision makers nobody really knows. Every now and again we see a tiny bit of light regarding their thoughts but that’s about it. I think one of the problems is there are still those around who made the original bad judgments with regards to the grants given to Greece and them joining both the EU and the Euro, the last thing they want is to accept the blame, which they should do, for getting it so wrong.

It is a documented and well known fact that much of the money given in grants for infrastructure, healthcare and education projects went to pay state workers and their pensions not to mention one or two back pockets. Indeed there is little outward signs of where the money really went. They could have stopped it (the grants) then but they ignored the warning signs and carried on giving them money.

When the end of the grants was reached Greece borrowed then borrowed some more and finally it has all blown up in everyone’s faces. So in one corner you have the Greeks who are over their heads in debt without any way to pay it back. In the other corner you have those of the EU who by calling Greece’s bluff know they will expose themselves and people will see how wrong they got it.

The problem now is that it has gone on so long and everyone is in so deep that nobody really knows what to do. I can't see Greece changing its ways and I can see the EU letting them off yet again which, as somebody else pointed out, does not send out a good message to other small EU countries. What’s really needed is somebody with the balls to stand up and say "enough" and if you (Greece) don't make the cuts and don't pay back the money as you first agreed you will be cut adrift from the Euro and you will have to go back to your old currency.

The institutionalised greed and corruption in Greece goes from all those council workers that work in bars at night putting their earnings straight in their pocket whilst looking forward to a nice pension when they hit 50 to the top people who ran and continue to run the country.

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Given that the euro is a political rather than an economic project, I cannot see the rest of the Eurozone allowing Greece to leave. That is what Greece is banking on (no pun intended). We will see just how far this game of chicken goes on for, but I suspect some sort of concession will arrive, as if by magic and allow Greece to remain, tottering on the brink of leaving for some time yet.
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[quote user="Thibault"]Given that the euro is a political rather than an economic project, I cannot see the rest of the Eurozone allowing Greece to leave. That is what Greece is banking on (no pun intended). We will see just how far this game of chicken goes on for, but I suspect some sort of concession will arrive, as if by magic and allow Greece to remain, tottering on the brink of leaving for some time yet.[/quote] The situation as seen by Max Hastings http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3135382/MAX-HASTINGS-deal-stitched-Greeks-victory-cowardice-make-euro-crisis-worse.html
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