in the wake of Deal or No Deal and Yesterday in Parliament

[mint]

No, this is not a new TV game show nor indeed some worthy BBC radio 4 programme.  Bear with me, this is interesting and relevant and even somewhat intriguing:

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/13/remain-mistakes-brexit-leavers[/url]

That never -to- be- mentioned hope of many remainers, a second referendum, a people's vote, whatever they are going to call, it might be more than a dimly-spotted shadowy silhouette on the horizon.... 

[NickP]

So, if remain win that one will there be a third or fourth? I don't think it will happen. The most likely scenario I believe is that Brexit will be cancelled with the collusion of the Tory party, the London elite and the EU. The present negotiations are being carefully orchestrated to make it seem they are trying to implement the "will of the people", but seems to be a big sham.

[alittlebitfrench]

That is how I read it Mr P.

I would be happy if Brexit is cancelled because I don't want to queue up again at the local prefecture and get a CDS.

I'm selfish like that.

Vote Remain....ALBF does not want to queue up again at the local prefecture and get a CDS.

It really is a demeaning experience getting a CDS. "Please let me live in France" LOL

Desole Mr ALBF, I can't give you a CDS because there is a staple missing on this bit of paper. You will have to come back and go through the whole process again with the correct number of staples.

LOL

[mint]

Interesting comments, NickP and ALBF.  I have now resolved to stop following all the twists and turns until at least after Christmas[:D]

[richard51]

I assume/predict that you will not sweetiepie.

[richard51]

At least for the second referendum (if it democratically happens) people will know what they are voting for.

Power to the people - brother!

[NickP]

The first referendum was democratic, it seems though that only the remainers didn't know what they were voting for. LOL

[richard51]

£350 x 10 to the power 6 per something time (you might remind me) for the NHS.

great trade deals with others - and then criminal Trump says America first.

As a starter.

Now we know. what is the problem : why not another referendum and dont give the drivel spouted by a remainer who really is tunnel visioned with her career and married to a very rich man with dubious connections.

Cameron, actually, is the idiot who should be to blame - two thirds of the Tories seem to think so.

[PaulT]

The head of the ERG is Jacob Rees-Mogg. He has interests in financial services and asset management. A couple of months ago Private Eye reported that offices had been opened in Dublin so that the interests could carry on operating in the EU!!!!

Am I looking at this too simplistically? Leave with a No Deal. I have a factory making thingumies and sell them to Spain, France and Italy. The UK leaves the EU without a deal and my market has gone. So stop production and lay off staff. Can I sell them elsewhere in the world. In other countries they buy their thinumies from, let's say, China and are perfectly happy with the quality. 'Why don't you buy them from me?' If they are satisfied with the quality then the only way in is to undercut but financially I cannot lower my price. So my workers still have no job. A trade deal is reached with the EU so I can sell to my old markets BUT there is a company in Germany now making thingumies that can be sold to my previous markets with no import tariffs that now apply to my product. So I close the factory and UK unemployment figures goes up.

Nissan cars suddenly lose their market in the EU but a trade deal is reached so back they go in to the EU but with a tariff and now the Renault equivalent is cheaper. What does Mr & Mrs EU buy?

Oh, the EU export more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU so the EU will bend over backwards to do a deal. Why? The exports from the EU come from 27 countries so on average they lose 1/27 of the exports. The UK losses 100%.

The tie ups between Renault and Nissan and PSA and Vauxhall could they decide to move production to an EU country with cheaper costs......the production of the Land Rover Discovery moves to Slovakia in 2019.

Presmably, as a net contributor the EU does not want the UK to leave, even if it does occasionally throw a tantrum. So what incentive does the EU have to give the UK a super dooper easy deal?

[NickP]

The economy will plunge straight after the referendum, unemployment will rise, All the financial market companies will relocate etc. Carney and Osborne spouting doom and gloom. Nothing has changed.

"We send the EU £350m a week, lets fund our NHS instead" was the text". I don't take that to mean all the money goes to the NHS, just some of it. Indeed why not?

As said, nobody knows at the minute but with an arch remainer leading the talks I smell a conspiracy and that means Brexit won't happen. So Richard something for us to agree on? LOL

[idun]

[quote user="richard51"]At least for the second referendum (if it democratically happens) people will know what they are voting for.

Power to the people - brother![/quote]

And how can it 'democratically' happen....... we had a perfectly legal election, that was democracy and the vote was what it was.

Any party who had won with such a majority would have been lording it over the others.

I am enraged by your post, you have said some things which I have too often found irritating or bizarre, but this for me takes the biscuit.

We who hate the EU the abomination that it is............ did not vote through ignorance, which you have suggested we did, and without putting words down for you, I imagine you believe us of little brain.

I was young when I moved to France and already disliked the EEA and there were hurdles to jump when we moved, and that was OK.......... and over the years I subsequently grew to truly hate it.

You are in good company with Blair, he too wants a second election...... Just  my opinion but as far as I am concerned he is despicable and as bad as Thatcher if not worse.

[DerekJ]

[quote user="idun"]

[quote user="richard51"]At least for the second referendum (if it democratically happens) people will know what they are voting for.

Power to the people - brother![/quote]

And how can it 'democratically' happen....... we had a perfectly legal election, that was democracy and the vote was what it was.

Any party who had won with such a majority would have been lording it over the others.

I am enraged by your post, you have said some things which I have too often found irritating or bizarre, but this for me takes the biscuit.

We who hate the EU the abomination that it is............ did not vote through ignorance, which you have suggested we did, and without putting words down for you, I imagine you believe us of little brain.

I was young when I moved to France and already disliked the EEA and there were hurdles to jump when we moved, and that was OK.......... and over the years I subsequently grew to truly hate it.

You are in good company with Blair, he too wants a second election...... Just  my opinion but as far as I am concerned he is despicable and as bad as Thatcher if not worse.

[/quote]

So that's OK then. If everyone understood what "Leave" meant at the time of the first referendum, and if nothing has changed, everyone will vote the same way and "Leave" will be endorsed.

If you are Leaver why would you be scared to have another vote?

[richard51]

With due respect Idun, I do not believe that all the leave voters, as simple as you think they are, voted for a cliff edge leave with a pretty certain economic disaster to follow. Apparently even two thirds of the conservative MPs are against such a cliff edge leave.

At the end of the day I think it was more of a protest against the establishment in the UK.

At the end of the day it was also only "advisory" of public opinion at that time.

I do appreciate that there are extremist nutters in any vote though and smooth talking orators can influence other people to vote in strange ways by rousing a crowd - Hitler was good at that

[PaulT]

Idun wrote 'We who hate the EU the abomination that it is............ did not vote through ignorance'

Must be then that there were some who voted Leave who did not hate the EU. From some Leavers I have spoken to they are of the opinion that the EU will have vast riches through not paying in to the EU - despite some coming back in various forms - and no Johnny Foreigner. Sad to say, that one fervent Leaver is my sister who has the above views.

Feel sorry for those who will be made redundant because businesses close down due to loss of markets or higher costs for their products in those markets.

[NickP]

So, Paul, you have irrefutable evidence to back up your comment?

[richard51]

NickP

Easy to find old boy.

Just one quick google

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-business-eu-uk-hq-no-deal-industry-europe-a8581431.html

[PaulT]

[quote user="NickP"]So, Paul, you have irrefutable evidence to back up your comment?[/quote]

If you are referring to my sisters comments then yes, she said it and has made social media comments.

As for redundancies surely, that is obvious. No deal and therefore no advantageous trade deal therefore WTO tariffs would apply making UK exports to the EU more expensive, i.e. at present countries in the EU will be paying the normal cost. After no deal, normal cost + tariff. Perhaps, with specialised items the customer will have to grin and pay but common items, let's say nuts and bolts, add the tariff on and it could well be cheaper for EU countries to source them from another EU country whereby no tariff will be payable.

[idun]

I have just looked at general election results since 1945 and NOT ONE party got over a  5o % of the vote.

So do we the voters say, hey you didn't get enough let's re-do the election.

 

No we don't.

Have politicians held to  all their promises once elected????

I would dread looking that one up, because I imagine it would be pitiful.

We had an election and WHY anyone would think that we should have another, IF it had been remain, then I would not be bleating on and on and on.

Do people on here only want reruns when they aren't suited, do they believe that that is how it should always be because I suggest that you all start campaigning for full over 50%majority of the actual vote in parliaments for the winning side, because thus far we don't have that.

And look all those banners telling Macron to leave, that isn't how it works either also he did get over 50% and people still are not suited.

Sick to the back teeth about the Brexit 'debate' and the constant whinging about the result.  If we had voted remain I would have accepted it, and it would not have stopped my loathing of the EU, but I would not have been a perpetual whinger!

Just feels like too many don't like our democracy, the likes of Gina Miller.......... I shall keep my thoughts about that woman to myself.

I shall avoid all brexit threads from now on. And as I keep saying, we could probably be very badly affected and have to move back to France, but heyho....... it will be what it will be.

[alittlebitfrench]

Idun...

You want to move back to France don't you ?

Just move !!!

Brexit or no Brexit it changes nothing.

Just move for flying out loud.

Just don't buy one of Levens houses and you will be safe.

[NickP]

Paul, no reference to your sister at all, just your economic doom and gloom forecasts which have no justification, except now you saying "it's obvious". Sorry mate I'm looking for facts and for verification and all you offer is "it's obvious", it may be to you, but not to lots of others, me included.

[NickP]

richard51

NickP

Easy to find old boy.

Just one quick google

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-business-eu-uk-hq-no-deal-industry-europe-a8581431.html

Yes, of course old chap, if you believe the Russian owned Rag

[richard51]

For goodness sake just google "companies leaving UK because of brexit"

Are these people right wing enough for you?

https://readyforbrexit.co.uk/the-list-of-companies-setting-up-hqs-or-bases-on-mainland-europe-ahead-of-brexit-grows/

I really do find it so bizarre that people can say that they actually "loathe" the EU or are so convinced that just leaving would not create massive problems.

[PaulT]

[quote user="NickP"]Paul, no reference to your sister at all, just your economic doom and gloom forecasts which have no justification, except now you saying "it's obvious". Sorry mate I'm looking for facts and for verification and all you offer is "it's obvious", it may be to you, but not to lots of others, me included.[/quote]

Nick, let me ask you a question:

You are living in France and you have decided to buy a new car and settled on a Nissan produced in Co Durham. You are happy with the price but before putting your money down the dealer has now phoned you to say that as the UK has left the EU without a trade deal and therefore he will have to add the cost of the WTO tariff.

Do you say:

'That is fine I will pay it'

or do you say:

'Oooh, I will first look at other makes to make sure I still want the Nissan'

If it is the first option then obviously I am wrong in stating 'it's obvious' and those in the EU will happily pay the tariffs and the UK will carry on as it is with the bonus of £350m per week for the NHS'.

In addition, all residents of the UK will be jolly happy paying the tariffs on goods coming from the EU.

[PaulT]

As an aside, it is nice to see that in the time I have not been on the forum that the 'quote problem' has NOT been resolved!

[nomoss]

[quote user="PaulT"]As an aside, it is nice to see that in the time I have not been on the forum that the 'quote problem' has NOT been resolved![/quote]

Curiously, It's never been a problem for me.

I don't think a publisher, trying to attract customers by extolling the virtues of living in France, can really see much value in spending money on a forum which tends to highlight problems with living there.

We're lucky they still support it, especially considering the alternatives.

I'm very glad it is surviving.