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marks out of 10 please for......


mint
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David Cameron's negotiating "skills".

I give him a very grudging 2.

We have a once in a lifetime opportunity to wrestle a good deal out of the EU and this useless so-called statesman has managed to blow it!

When you think what Greece managed to get for their country when they were on their uppers and were bankrupt and took only a begging bowl with them..........[:P]

Cameron had a very good hand but still managed to lose.  He'd have been better off taking Victoria Coren, who I hear is a very good poker player, to the negotiations with him.

Now I don't know whether to pity him or be really angry; it's set my asthma off so perhaps I should calm down and and take a more detached view.

Anyone has any thoughts?

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 Saw that someone in Germany had said that the EU was on fire and DC was rearranging the furniture.

Well if the germans had not been so hell bent on making 'one' europe... apparently without a war this time, then this would not need discussing.

No idea why all these eastern countries were allowed in, could never work that out.

So how many does DC get well from my point of view a big fat ZERO!

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[quote user="lindal1000"]Maybe the EU isn't so bothered about the UK leaving as the UK thinks it is. Hasn't even made the news here.[/quote]

It may not be very important in your little Francophile world, but the rest of Great Britain and Europe is very interested. I think he's being very clever, saying he wants in but negotiating an agreement that the voters will probably chuck out. That way he wins whatever happens, will of the people and all that. 10 out of 10 [:P]

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It is always hard to say how well negotiations have gone when you don't know how much the other side were prepared to give.

I note the enthusiasm of some posters for a British exit and I would be interested to know what sort of arrangement they would expect to see between theUK and the EU. At the moment it seems we will know exactly what staying in entails but will be in complete ignorance of what happens if the UK leaves. Hardly a sound basis for making a rational solution
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[quote user="Rabbie"]It is always hard to say how well negotiations have gone when you don't know how much the other side were prepared to give.

I note the enthusiasm of some posters for a British exit and I would be interested to know what sort of arrangement they would expect to see between theUK and the EU. At the moment it seems we will know exactly what staying in entails but will be in complete ignorance of what happens if the UK leaves. Hardly a sound basis for making a rational solution[/quote]

Probably the same as it was before we joined, meaning the return of a Carnet de passage for goods coming into Europe, maybe Brits who reside in France having to get a residents card, apart from that as you say we don't know, but then we don't know yet what the final arrangements for staying in are; as they are still under discussion.

             I'd like someone who wants the UK to stay in, explain what the advantages are to the population of the UK, as opposed to what a very small group who have emigrated from Great Britain want for themselves.

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I agree with you that we do not yet know the exact terms of the final agreement but we will before polling day. There still seems to be a lot of confusion from different groups who want to leave as to what will happen the options seem to range between your suggestion on one hand and those who suggest an arrangement similar to Norway.

The norwegian option would give us similar membership fees and conditions to what we have at present but with very little say on any changes to the rules in the future.

 

The complete break solution seems to me to run the risk of foreign owned companies moving their operations back to within the EU to keep the advantages they have at present. This will probably not happen instantly but over a longer time scale but it will not be good for the British economy.

I fear with several diverse out groups campaigning on different options that many people will not get what they think they have voted for.

I also fear that an out vote may well lead to the break-up of the UK  and to the collapse of the  Northern Ireland Peace process.

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We don't have or have been given all the facts yet, so until we do I just wish that people would stop all the scare story's about the disasters that would follow an exit. The Norwegian option? a complete no no for me. I don't share your pessimism about foreign companies decamping and as for the breaking up of the UK that's already in progress thanks to the minority SNP and their determination to break away.

 Northern Ireland? Well I'm of the opinion that it should be part of a united Ireland anyway, and let them sort their own problems out. Wales?  I imagine it's unlikely that they could exist on their own but if they want independence, let them have it.

  Personally I ask why should we give lots of money to an organisation that refuses to show where it goes, changes headquarters every couple of weeks at huge expense, and to my mind lives in La La land. A united Europe is all very well but it's dream that is impossible to govern properly without it becoming a federal state, and that is too awful to contemplate.

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Rabbie wrote,

 

At the moment it seems we will know exactly

what staying in entails but will be in complete ignorance of what happens if the

UK leaves. Hardly a sound basis for making a rational solution

 

 

 

Surely staying in with what we already have,

is in itself, enough reason to leave. Dave has managed to achieve practically

FA, which I must confess is far more than I thought he might.

 

Dave is also a liar, remember in 2010 when he

said the immigration figures were going to be reduced to the tens of thousands,

NO IF’S NO BUT’S, and here we are with them running at higher levels than when

he came in.

 

There is no way that overseas companies' will

leave the UK when we get out of the EU, that's just a

scare put around to try to frighten the lower working class wage

slaves’ they employ. Can you imagine Nissan packing up in your part of the

woods?? to go where??

French unions will put them off, German cars

manufactures wont want them in their back yard, perhaps Romania may suit them,

lots of cheap labour, and may act as reason for some of their own

people
 to stay in their own country. Win Win if that

happened.

 

Bit like old Marky Carney, saying

if the UK leaves the EU interest rates will go up, well it now seems they are

going down around the world, look at the rate in Japan today, more tales to

frighten the lower classes with large mortgages and high CC

borrowing.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12086589/EU-referendum-Who-in-Britain-wants-to-leave-and-who-wants-to-remain.html

An interesting report in the Telegraph about how opinions are divided.

Younger people, Scottish people and people with University level education and in managerial type jobs are more in favour of staying in, than older people, and people in more manual type jobs.

Will it make a difference? Well young people tend not to vote, but maybe they will be motivated by this?

I don't share you're view that big manufacturers will not want to go elsewhere.. and yes, I expect Eastern Europe will be very attractive. The financial institutions and services will almost certainly make their centre of business elsewhere.. and are already putting plans into place. My concern would be what does the UK produce that other people want to buy and that they could trade with the rest of the world?

If you vote to leave the EU are you voting to just do that, and stay within the EEA or is it a complete break? I do think this is something people need to know at the time of voting otherwise what are you voting for.. other than another round of negotiations to further decide what the UK's role will be within Europe and how much it will cost. You won't get a second vote to say exactly how close you want to be.. that will be decided for you.

If the vote is to leave then as far as I can see the immediate outcome would be stalemate for however long it takes to decide what to do next. Any legislation to change the current laws re immigration, freedom of movement, reciprocal health care, would take months/years to renegotiate and in the meantime things would continue. The exact conditions of the exit would have to be negotiated including the actual date, when the UK would stop paying etc..

So if you were living in say.. Latvia, and thinking that one day you might like to live in the UK, or in the UK thinking you might like to live in France.. what would you do? Wait until it was all decided or just hop on a train and get over there before they changed their mind?
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"An interesting report in the Telegraph" All that's interesting about that is; if you ask the right people the right question you will get the answer you want. As we found out in that last election; polls are complete nonsense. I'm still waiting for Paddy pants down to eat his hat.[:D]

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I'm not one to much weight on opinion polls either.. except that the results pretty much confirm the discussions that take place on here and various other forums... I assume, maybe incorrectly, that these forums are made up of mainly older people (over 60) and as such we tend to be in the group that are more inclined to vote for an exit, according to that poll. It also confirms my experiences of London voters, who are more in favour of staying than not, the young people I know, and the views of many Scottish people. For Scotland the UK voting to leave the EU could really force another devolution vote, if the majority there voted to stay. Perhaps some people would prefer that, both North and South of the border.. but England negotiating alone with the rest of the world, for trade deals etc doesn't bode well to my mind.

Incidently on my Facebook page today I got a unsolicited post from the Conservative party reminding me that as a British Citizen living in France I was allowed to vote in the referendum and if I hadn't done so, to register on line.
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[quote user="ebaynut"] 

 

Surely staying in with what we already have,

is in itself, enough reason to leave. Dave has managed to achieve practically

FA, which I must confess is far more than I thought he might.

 
[/quote]

Actually No - not if the out option is worse than what we presently have. That's why I want to know what the Out scenario will entail so I can make a rational choice.

We should be informed clearly and honestly what the Out proponents think what the scenario should be.

NickP has kindly given us an insight into how he sees the  Out future. It would be nice if other in favour of an exit could also give us their views.

I only ask because I have an aversion to buying a pig in a poke.

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Any rational discussion on the ins and the outs would be welcome.  All I see is repeated rhetoric, emotional and political point scoring, and sentimental "Britain is so great" feelings being expressed.

Nothing about the real economic reality.

And I do not see why DC is pushing to limit the benefits of EU migrants, surely it is the rest of the world whose admission we want to limit.  Last I read the EU migrants were not a very large percentage of arrivals.  And most go home, eventually.

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[quote user="Judith"]Any rational discussion on the ins and the outs would be welcome.  All I see is repeated rhetoric, emotional and political point scoring, and sentimental "Britain is so great" feelings being expressed.

Nothing about the real economic reality.

And I do not see why DC is pushing to limit the benefits of EU migrants, surely it is the rest of the world whose admission we want to limit.  Last I read the EU migrants were not a very large percentage of arrivals.  And most go home, eventually.

[/quote]

I think a visit to spec savers is in order? [:P]

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What are the benefits of the UK staying in the EU?

With apologies to those who have made some of these points already:

Economy

There are roughly 200 countries outside of the EU. At present the UK has trade deals with none of them. Not one single one. The EU does. The UK would need to negotiate new deals with each and every one of these countries. Many I am sure would be happy to continue the current arrangements, some may not and may play hardball. But every single one would still need to be negotiated, agreed and signed – great if you are a civil servant, or the Trade Secretary (Job for life syndrome). In the meantime what happens to UK export business? What happens to UK import business? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

If it takes (on average) 30 civil servants 3 weeks to negotiate each and every deal, draw up the papers and get them signed (and I think that is likely to be very, very, very optimistic – I suspect it is at least 10 times that), that would be 18000 man weeks. This may sound like a simple – even silly – problem; but until such deals are negotiated the UK and the other country cannot apply any relevant import/export tariffs. De facto, there are no agreed tariffs and there can be no trade.

It follows therefore that the UK cannot leave the EU until it has agreed new relationships with all of its (major) trading partners. How many years of uncertainty is that? What happens during the interim? Which agreement applies EU or UK? Would/could there be a flight of capital from the UK? The interim period is likely to be much extended. What would be the impact on UK economy in the interim? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

We would also need to negotiate our trade deals with the EU. Does this mean that UK companies could no longer export to their (still) major trading partner – the EU? Of course not. However would trade barriers be erected? I would like to think not, but there will be some EU politicians who might want to take some form of revenge against a country leaving out of spite. They may even be supported by other national politicians who would have very good reason to want to punish the UK for leaving. A number of EU countries are being faced with a large and growing number of nationalist (some might even say fascist in some cases) groups who are intent on overthrowing their current governments and in many cases leaving the EU (like the current UK debate) – NPD, NF, PPN and PN come immediately to mind. So, it could be that for the heads of the “traditional” parties of these countries would see great benefit in penalising the UK with trade tariffs so that they can turn round to their electorates and say, “see, that is what happens if you follow nationalism and leave the EU.” Would that happen? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

Would companies leave the UK and relocate in the new EU? Most have kept strum. Some have said they will certainly stay. Some have hinted that they might, long term, withdraw if only by saying they see benefit in being in the UK because of the link to the EU. So would they leave immediately? I strongly doubt it. Would they leave long term? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

What would be our relationship with the Europe in future?

I understand completely your argument against being in the EEA. It also makes no sense to me. To be in the EEA means you pay your dues to the EU, you implement their laws and regulations, you join Schengen but you don’t have any say whatsoever in what happens with those regulations or in what you pay. So we have a complete break with “Europe” and our nearest neighbours outside of the “EU/EEA net” are Iceland (still bankrupt), Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina (both applying for EU membership) and Russia. Is this a situation we really want to be in? ? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

Break-up of the UK.

You dismiss this on the basis of, if that is what they want so be it, and to an extent I agree – within the EU. But think what this means if England leaves the UK and Wales and/or Scotland votes in favour of staying. If they then apply to the EU and are accepted – and again out of spite (if for no other reason) they might well be, what would then happen? You seem to see no problems, but new entrants to the EU are required to become part of Schengen. Now you have two open borders down Offa’s Dyke and Hadrian’s Wall with Schengen countries, through which any refugee accepted into the EU (if you will read that as Germany and Sweden) can move – not legitimately I will admit. Also any EU migrant can position himself legally 1m away from English territory – and with an open border. It seems to me that this does not improve the UK’s/England’s security against mass immigration. Would it happen? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

Immigration

And while we are on the topic, there are currently 5000 potential and immediate immigrants at Calais/Dunkerque. They are kept at bay by French security forces. If the UK (or is that now England?) leaves the EU, what are the positive driving forces to force the French to keep these people out of the UK/England? The maire of Calais has already made clear that he is less than pleased with his responsibilities and the costs of keeping the Jungle out of the UK? If the UK was not in the EU what would happen? Would the EU see this as a release valve on their own migrant problems? Would they effectively open the border by withdrawing resource? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk of disruptions? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk of disruptions?

Notwithstanding the comments above, a great deal of immigration is as a direct result of successive governments’ inability to handle the statistics available to all. As early as 2005 (probably earlier) it became clear that the UK population was due to increase significantly. So did they increase the recruitment of teachers, doctors, nurses, care assistants etc.? Did they f***. So now the UK has to import them = immigrants – and the vast majority are imported from outside the EU, some from inside. Please note that from at least as early as 2005 we can justifiably blame all and every major party in the UK.

What happens to UK residents in the EU?

Deliberately left to last. Can they still stay in the EU? I see no reason why not. Yes we might need a carte de sejour or an Aufenthaltserlebnis (and you have no idea how difficult that was without a German spell checker) or whatever, but they were available before, they are available now and will be available in the future. A few, really a very small number, could potentially be excluded on the basis of inadequate income but I doubt they would be – just claim political asylum from the UK!

NickP

I have deliberately ignored any benefit to those currently in the EU, whether old codger or 25 year old.

You asked specifically for the benefit to the UK and I give you a very imperfect “certainty” versus a complete unknown – apart from the platitudes of we will be in our own independent control.

As for those in the EU , there are estimated to be 2m. Of those around 1m are working. If a severance from the EU means they cannot work any longer, what would happen if they all arrived in Dover and started to claim unemployment? Of the estimated 1m unemployed (probably OAPs), what would happen if 20% (200.000 people) arrived in the UK and demanded – as is their right – immediate health care?

Frankly the whole argument sounds a bit like a 70 year old husband who complains that he married an eighteen year old bombshell 50 years ago on the basis of love, honour and obey and now she ain’t a bombshell, she doesn’t seem to love/[email protected] in the way she did at 18, she doesn’t always honour and sometimes criticises and as for obey…………………………………….

Posted by NickP<edited by Rabbie. inappropriate language>

As for marks 0/10 - but the DC has said he does not intend to be there for the next election, and this pathetic option for the UK electorate gives the man (I use the word loosely) the perfect out if the vote is for out.
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Andyh4 wrote,

What are the benefits of the UK staying in the EU?

With apologies to those who have made some of these points already:

Economy

There are roughly 200 countries outside of the EU. At present the

UK has trade deals with none of them. Not one single one. The EU

does. The UK would need to negotiate new deals with each and every one

of these countries. Many I am sure would be happy to continue the

current arrangements, some may not and may play hardball. But every

single one would still need to be negotiated, agreed and signed – great

if you are a civil servant, or the Trade Secretary (Job for life

syndrome). In the meantime what happens to UK export business? What

happens to UK import business? I don’t know, but why should we put

ourselves to the risk?

If it takes (on average) 30 civil servants 3 weeks to negotiate each

and every deal, draw up the papers and get them signed (and I think

that is likely to be very, very, very optimistic – I suspect it is at

least 10 times that), that would be 18000 man weeks. This may sound

like a simple – even silly – problem; but until such deals are

negotiated the UK and the other country cannot apply any relevant

import/export tariffs. De facto, there are no agreed tariffs and there

can be no trade.

It follows therefore that the UK cannot leave the EU until it has

agreed new relationships with all of its (major) trading partners. How

many years of uncertainty is that? What happens during the interim?

Which agreement applies EU or UK? Would/could there be a flight of

capital from the UK? The interim period is likely to be much extended.

What would be the impact on UK economy in the interim? I don’t know,

but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

We would also need to negotiate our trade deals with the EU. Does

this mean that UK companies could no longer export to their (still)

major trading partner – the EU? Of course not. However would trade

barriers be erected? I would like to think not, but there will be some

EU politicians who might want to take some form of revenge against a

country leaving out of spite. They may even be supported by other

national politicians who would have very good reason to want to punish

the UK for leaving. A number of EU countries are being faced with a

large and growing number of nationalist (some might even say fascist in

some cases) groups who are intent on overthrowing their current

governments and in many cases leaving the EU (like the current UK

debate) – NPD, NF, PPN and PN come immediately to mind. So, it could be

that for the heads of the “traditional” parties of these countries

would see great benefit in penalising the UK with trade tariffs so that

they can turn round to their electorates and say, “see, that is what

happens if you follow nationalism and leave the EU.” Would that happen?

I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

Would companies leave the UK and relocate in the new EU? Most have

kept strum. Some have said they will certainly stay. Some have hinted

that they might, long term, withdraw if only by saying they see benefit

in being in the UK because of the link to the EU. So would they leave

immediately? I strongly doubt it. Would they leave long term? I

don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

What would be our relationship with the Europe in future?

I understand completely your argument against being in the EEA. It

also makes no sense to me. To be in the EEA means you pay your dues to

the EU, you implement their laws and regulations, you join Schengen but

you don’t have any say whatsoever in what happens with those regulations

or in what you pay. So we have a complete break with “Europe” and our

nearest neighbours outside of the “EU/EEA net” are Iceland (still

bankrupt), Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina (both applying for EU

membership) and Russia. Is this a situation we really want to be in? ?

I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

Break-up of the UK.

You dismiss this on the basis of, if that is what they want so be

it, and to an extent I agree – within the EU. But think what this means

if England leaves the UK and Wales and/or Scotland votes in favour of

staying. If they then apply to the EU and are accepted – and again out

of spite (if for no other reason) they might well be, what would then

happen? You seem to see no problems, but new entrants to the EU are

required to become part of Schengen. Now you have two open borders down

Offa’s *** and Hadrian’s Wall with Schengen countries, through which

any refugee accepted into the EU (if you will read that as Germany and

Sweden) can move – not legitimately I will admit. Also any EU migrant

can position himself legally 1m away from English territory – and with

an open border. It seems to me that this does not improve the

UK’s/England’s security against mass immigration. Would it happen? I

don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to the risk?

Immigration

And while we are on the topic, there are currently 5000 potential

and immediate immigrants at Calais/Dunkerque. They are kept at bay by

French security forces. If the UK (or is that now England?) leaves the

EU, what are the positive driving forces to force the French to keep

these people out of the UK/England? The maire of Calais has already

made clear that he is less than pleased with his responsibilities and

the costs of keeping the Jungle out of the UK? If the UK was not in the

EU what would happen? Would the EU see this as a release valve on

their own migrant problems? Would they effectively open the border by

withdrawing resource? I don’t know, but why should we put ourselves to

the risk of disruptions? I don’t know, but why should we put

ourselves to the risk of disruptions?

Notwithstanding the comments above, a great deal of immigration is

as a direct result of successive governments’ inability to handle the

statistics available to all. As early as 2005 (probably earlier) it

became clear that the UK population was due to increase significantly.

So did they increase the recruitment of teachers, doctors, nurses, care

assistants etc.? Did they f***. So now the UK has to import them =

immigrants – and the vast majority are imported from outside the EU,

some from inside. Please note that from at least as early as 2005 we

can justifiably blame all and every major party in the UK.

What happens to UK residents in the EU?

Deliberately left to last. Can they still stay in the EU? I see no

reason why not. Yes we might need a carte de sejour or an

Aufenthaltserlebnis (and you have no idea how difficult that was without

a German spell checker) or whatever, but they were available before,

they are available now and will be available in the future. A few,

really a very small number, could potentially be excluded on the basis

of inadequate income but I doubt they would be – just claim political

asylum from the UK!

NickP

I have deliberately ignored any benefit to those currently in the EU, whether old codger or 25 year old.

You asked specifically for the benefit to the UK and I give you a

very imperfect “certainty” versus a complete unknown – apart from the

platitudes of we will be in our own independent control.

As for those in the EU , there are estimated to be 2m. Of those

around 1m are working. If a severance from the EU means they cannot

work any longer, what would happen if they all arrived in Dover and

started to claim unemployment? Of the estimated 1m unemployed (probably

OAPs), what would happen if 20% (200.000 people) arrived in the UK and

demanded – as is their right – immediate health care?

Frankly the whole argument sounds a bit like a 70 year old husband

who complains that he married an eighteen year old bombshell 50 years

ago on the basis of love, honour and obey and now she ain’t a bombshell,

she doesn’t seem to love/[email protected] in the way she did at 18, she doesn’t

always honour and sometimes criticises and as for obey…………………………………….

Posted by NickP

As for marks 0/10 - but the DC has said he does not intend to be

there for the next election, and this pathetic option for the UK

electorate gives the man (I use the word loosely) the perfect out if the

vote is for out.


Andy

A European Rahinja.

That's easy for you to say.

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In answer to Andy, I would suggest you would serve your cause better without the personal abuse, which in the context of this thread is totally unfounded, I would also suggest that you wouldn't get away with being abusive to my face so please don't do it from the security of your keyboard. Maybe you'd be better off posting earlier in the day, before the common sense erasing liquid has taken effect.

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My apologies Nick if you felt that my comment was meant to be abusive towards yourself.

It was simply repeating your abuse towards me on a previous thread on the same topic.

Re-reading my post I do see that it was somewhat negative and focused purely on the uncertain future outside of the EU.

So on a positive side, as I think you pointed out earlier, the UK is the fifth richest nation in the world. That is after 50 years inside the EU (and its previous incarnations).

Clearly the EU cannot be doing it all wrong.
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7 Feb 2016/19H25GMT, EDITING THIS AS i DID THIS POST ON AN IPAD WHICH AUTO CORRECTED!

I did not vote to go in in the first place and frankly, when we moved to France, the hoops I had to jump through, were not unreasonable. And because we chose to move, that another country had its own way of doing things was just the way it was.

And if what I had said no to, was a simple trade partnership, how the hell did we end up with what we have now, an unaccountable monster.

Look at the EU website, says the EU is as honest as the day is long.......mon oeil!!!!

I cannot say that if the UK leaves that it would not be hard, who is not to say that it won't be hard, if we stay in and the monster continues its lumbering interference in all our lives, because those that gain most from the budget are the eurocrats!

Whatever, we will get through it, we always do, no use worrying about it.
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On who may vote:

Who can register as an overseas voter? 

If you are a British citizen living abroad, you can apply to be an overseas voter. 

You must have been registered to vote in the UK in the last 15 years and be eligible to vote in UK Parliamentary general elections and European Parliamentary elections.

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