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I would have thought it difficult to make such estimates. 50000 to 175000 is a fairly narrow band and, given that they:

a. don’t know if and when the move to human form will occur

b. don’t know if and to what extent a human form will become less dangerous (i.e. viruses that kill hosts too quickly also deprive themselves of a host = suicide in effect). Historically the move to human results in a less virulent form but will this happen again and to what extent ?

c. don’t know how effective Tamiflu will be against the currently non-existent human form of the bug.

d. don’t know how much Tamiflu they will have available to treat people and thus stop the disease spreading. (Tamiflu becomes less effective as the disease takes hold of somebody and thus there are logistical considerations about getting the drug to outbreaks quickly).

e. etc.

Despite all this they can come up with such accurate estimates ? My humble opinion is that they are just saying things to make people think they know what they are doing (but that’s just politicians).

Ian

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I'm wondering if anything about this flu business will come to light at our next conseil and the measures we may have to vote in especially as there are huge poultry rearing farms in the area which would affect everyone living here. I'll keep you posted if it does but it won't be for about three weeks.
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[quote]The good news from Le Figaro yesterday is that France is in no danger from the birdie flu, because we're not under the flight path of the infected migratory birds. What an amazing country - no bird f...[/quote]

But if you look at the BBC's online coverage of ABF, they have a map clearly showing that southern France is on the flight path - take a look at this map (you'll have to cut and paste the link)

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40912000/gif/_40912688_birdflu_latest.gif
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SKY NEWS.......... YES SKY NEWS

has stated that there must be more responsible reporting by the media ( that excludes the Daily(Asian Babes) Express and The SUN ) of the actual risks to humans of bird flu.

I wonder who they could mean?  Not the Beeb making a drama out of a crisis by any chance?  Still electing the next Tory boy should knock this off the headlines until another turkey coughs or should that be croaks in outer mongolia.

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Funny you should say that, Ron. The feeling in the Smith household has been that the Beeb has been milking this and stoking the flames (strangely mixed metaphor,, but you know what I mean) since the beginning, especially News 24 - bimbos with too much time to fill, or something more sinister?
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[quote]Funny you should say that, Ron. The feeling in the Smith household has been that the Beeb has been milking this and stoking the flames (strangely mixed metaphor,, but you know what I mean) since the b...[/quote]

I would say too much time to fill. Must be difficult to find major stories often enough to keep a 24/24 7/7 new program going !!

I personally thing the 24/24 7/7 new format is not particularly useful but I guess people watch it. I guess it’s a predictable side effect that for some stories there are loads of experts (that is real experts, not be being cynical) from medicine, disease control, biological, pharmaceuticals, etc. and to fill the time these programs will interview them.

I don’t think it is a BBC thing but that Sky and others (with the 24/24 7/7 format) fall into the same trap (almost by virtue of their new program format rather than by design).

Probably suits the politicians as it diverts attention from e.g. ID cards on dramatically reduced majorities, privatisation of ¼ million health service staff (nurses, etc.), 6% increase in violent crime, etc., etc.

Ian

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[quote]The good news from Le Figaro yesterday is that France is in no danger from the birdie flu, because we're not under the flight path of the infected migratory birds. What an amazing country - no bird f...[/quote]

That is of course until the spring  ...............................................................................................................................................

....................When all of the birds that do migrate across France, and have been sharing their winter hols with the ones from Asia that have the flu, fly back.

 

Sounds like Le Figaro is about as unrelaiable as the Sun - just complacent rather than sensation seeking.

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ITV News tonight led with a report that a South American parrot in quarantine in England had died of Avian Flu.

I think we can take this seriously as opposed to mere sensationalist journalism as there was no mention of John Cleese being called in to confirm its demise...
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I think that all the chickens should have Lemsip put into their feed and that will soon sort out this flu thing, Night Nurse would knock them out for a few hours if they were feeling slightly worse and when they wake up, they'll be feeling a lot better.

Really, this is getting out of hand - ONLY 60 people out of ??? billions across the world have died of this strain of flu in something like 15 years.

The type of flu that killed millions of people in 1919 is still about and you don't hear this sort of discussion about that in the media, nor is there constant reporting of the Asian strain that killed people in the 1960s and that is still around.

On BBC last evening they were showing chickens being burned alive in Bulgaria or somewhere, the Greeks have buried 3000 chickens alive.

I'll worry about it when the farmers in the Dordogne or my local village are dropping like flies with the strain but by then, as I'm high risk because of my blood condition, I'll have had the meds to go with my flu jab anyway.

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[quote]Heard on the news last night that UK govt wants to stop the movement of live birds around the world BUT thanks to (stupid) legislation poultry are not defined as birds. And we vote for these people ...[/quote]

They actually said "a ban on wild bird exports to the EU"

Poultry are not classed as "wild birds".   Mind you I bet they are a bit annoyed when they have their heads chopped off and are frozen and put in plastic bags.

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Well the riots provided a distraction didn't they?

Bird flu has,according to the BBC, (who with the cessation of riots have again turned to the subject of bird flu) now reached Kuwait.

Let's hope the UK government make a better job of innoculating our boys in Iraq against this than they did before - gulf war bird flu syndrome anyone.

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Really, Kuwait? Oh dear - our eldest lives there with his family. But some sad news from someone who used to post on this forum - Poulallier. I read on another forum that they are having to close down their business of breeding and selling rare breeds because of a ban on sellintg in markets in the area where they live. They are trying to sell off their stock. Pat.
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Patf, Sorry if I was being insensitive.

It's shocking how peoples livelihoods are affected at the stroke of a pen and not necessarily with a great deal of research/ knowledge.

I was just trying to highlight how , when the media have something new to play with, the greatest threat to mankind can be put on the back burner

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