French Presidential Election Result.

[5-element]

In our commune, (interesting as in same departement as NormanH), I was surprised to see

1) Hollande (954)  

2) Mélenchon (778) (I had thought most people would vote MLP!)  

3) Sarkozy 684  ) 

4) Le Pen 669   )  these last 2 very close.

I obviously don't have my finger on the local pulse...

[Will]

Chez nous, it's a dead heat between Sarko and Le Pen, (32% each) followed by Bayrou (18%), then Hollande and Dupont-Aignan with 7% each. Mélenchon brought up the rear with 4%, the other three got no votes at all.

Interestingly, last time round Bayrou was a runaway leader in the first round, and the socialists (Royal) got nul points.

[breizh]

The forex, debt and equity markets would have built in the widely expected Hollande win. Very bad EZ manufacturing data, and collapse of the NL budget talks, meaning an election in Tulipland, hammered the EZ markets, and rattled the GB markets.

The EUR forex rates are all red. GBP is all red except against EUR.

 

[Gardian]

As has been mentioned, the Gard was the only departement to give the most votes to MLP.  For our Commune, there was a 9% point increase in the FN vote (10 pts for the Gard as a whole) over what happened in 2007.  That's a lot.

One could debate for ever the possibilities for Round 2  - the only thing I'd say is that I've not met a Frenchman or woman with a good word to say about Sarkozy. I just feel that he has no more of a chance than Brown did in the last General Election - the public just don't like him.

[Russethouse]

Just read this - quite interesting...

http://adrianleeds.com:80/component/acymailing/archive/view/mailid-143/key-3b36a2af818074f305e71a0aac148145/subid-5210-7f054a78a08bd749cd44ec0635226f2f

[Gardengirl]

We spent Sunday travelling north. It was fascinating to see the results after dinner.

I was surprised that the Gard turned out quite so heavily for MLP, although our town isn't exactly typical of the area. Many people I know locally are FH supporters, although some admit to some admiration for NS for getting the pension age raised, as they fear what has happened in Greece might happen in France.

[NormanH]

A rather good article from a newspaper I don't usually agree with:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9221228/Frances-centre-Left-is-on-the-march-but-so-are-darker-forces-from-the-far-Right-National-Front.html

[NormanH]

I suggested  to a few friends in le Petit Café de Commerce to day 'La Reine au lieu de La Peine (LePen)' but they weren't all that keen...

[mint]

I shall watch the debate on the 2nd but, bon sang, that Sarkozy does love the sound of his own voice, doesn't he?

[cooperlola]

[quote user="NormanH"]A rather good article from a newspaper I don't usually agree with:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9221228/Frances-centre-Left-is-on-the-march-but-so-are-darker-forces-from-the-far-Right-National-Front.html
[/quote]Good stuff.  Measured and astute.  I find the woman ultra-scary and am amazed at how much legitimacy her poison has gained.  As I said earlier, short memories.  How easily does rhetoric and gloss seduce.

[Rabbie]

[quote user="cooperlola"][quote user="NormanH"]A rather good article from a newspaper I don't usually agree with:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9221228/Frances-centre-Left-is-on-the-march-but-so-are-darker-forces-from-the-far-Right-National-Front.html
[/quote]  How easily does rhetoric and gloss seduce.[/quote]As James Thurber put it "You can fool too many of the people too much of the time"[:D]

[NormanH]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/allies-turn-on-sarkozy-as-he-makes-his-pitch-to-far-right-7675976.html

[:@]

[Chancer]

I think that he has made the right decision, I reckon he will gain 3 votes from the far right for every one that he loses from the centre.

Or to put it another way there will be 3 far right voters and 1 centre voter who will mistakenly believe that he will act in the interests of the FN.

He started this strategy a long while back, I think he was well advised.

[Quillan]

[quote user="Chancer"]

I think that he has made the right decision, I reckon he will gain 3 votes from the far right for every one that he loses from the centre.

Or to put it another way there will be 3 far right voters and 1 centre voter who will mistakenly believe that he will act in the interests of the FN.

He started this strategy a long while back, I think he was well advised.

[/quote]

That's exactly how I read it as well. He is no fool, much as we would like to think he is, he has had this worked out from the start and if the FN party members decide to vote for him then there s every chance (sorry) that he will win. Then of course like other politicians he will do what he wants not what they think he will do. The most 'extreme' thing he will do is force clear labeling of Halal meat and possibly Kosher meat which I think most people, irregardless of party politics, would like to see done.

[pachapapa]

Bayrou is a centrist and consigning his voters to the left OR the right would be political suicide. The numerics of his supporters on this occasion are simple; hollande does not need his votes and for sarkozy there are not enough votes to make up the difference.

The choices for marine le pen is complex as she has a very heterogenous band of followers and this makes the consignment of her votes difficult. There do exist options of a very radical nature that would give her the possibility of consigning the majority of her votes; frankly I dont think she has the bottle to choose any of them.

Perhaps france will be surprised by her jeanne d'arc bash on the 1st of may.

P.S. Did you see the cop cars from bobingy blocking the champs élysées.

[mint]

Pacha, the last I heard was that Marine LP did not want to make any consigne as she didn't want to choose either Sarkozy or Hollande.

In the 2007 election, her father, and I quote from a brief article I read, "lui aussi n'avait pas donné de consigne.  Il avait demandé à ses électeurs de s-abstenir de voter".

I fervently hope that she follows suit.

As for Bayrou, I haven't been able to find out if he is going to be making a consigne or not.

[pachapapa]

French Centrist voters generally seem to be reasonable chaps without the pronounced ideological patine of the right and left.

So although a political stance by Bayrou would herald a pariod of forced purgatory, a MORAL stance which singularly emphasised the lying opportunist immorality of the dwarf as he moves gently towards fascism could be the advent of a rejuvenated centrist moral influence on french politics for the future.

Edit: 10:48 [;-)]

[Russethouse]

Centrist voters generally seem to be reasonable chaps without the pronounced ideological patine of the right and left

LOL.Thats what I thought about Lib Dems [:(]

[NormanH]

[quote user="Russethouse"]

Centrist voters generally seem to be reasonable chaps without the pronounced ideological patine of the right and left

LOL.Thats what I thought about Lib Dems [:(]

[/quote]

I used to vote for them [:-))]

[NormanH]

I think that Le Pen (I refuse to fall into her trap of calling her the cosy 'Martine') is trying out a strategy of becoming the replacement leader on the right in the event of Sarkozy losing, and his party the UMP imploding...

[NormanH]

[IMG]http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/hh80/bfb_album/555202_401096306574826_300713946613063_1521200_81820569_n.jpg[/IMG]

[Gardian]

[quote user="pachapapa"]

So although a political stance by Bayrou would herald a pariod of forced purgatory, a MORAL stance which singularly emphasised the lying opportunist immorality of the dwarf as he moves gently towards fascism could be the advent of a rejuvenated centrist moral influence on french politics for the future.

Edit: 10:48 [;-)]

[/quote]

Translation available on Google.

[5-element]

[quote user="NormanH"]I think that Le Pen (I refuse to fall into her trap of calling her the cosy 'Martine') is trying out a strategy of becoming the replacement leader on the right in the event of Sarkozy losing, and his party the UMP imploding...

[/quote]

 

LOL Norman, just as well you don't call her "Martine"!!!

[5-element]

edit: double post (although I have no idea how it happened!)

[pachapapa]

Of course Marine has been correct in her evaluation of the malaise in voting for the UMP.

As she has stated the reason is simple....the problem is Sarkozy....in her opinion, if the UMP had entered the Presidentielle with almost anyone other than Sarkozy then their chances of winning would have significantly enhanced.

Marine would not have had a record vote in the first round; the UMP would have topped the poll and gone on comfortably to win the Second Round.

The story of the first Round is modern history; the Second Round is unravelling. ( a fine choice of word....sorry Gardienne...I dont think you are into knitting.[:P])

The Marine analogy blames Sarkozy for the UMP dilemma; opinion polls have remained relatively static in the last 6 days with an approximately 10 points differential. Today the most recent poll conducted by the Harris Interactive organisation throws an interesting enlightenment on the rationale of prospective Hollande voters for a week on Sunday.  The poll reveals that 38% of voters will vote for Hollande purely on the basis that they just want Sarko to lose, whilst not particularly considering politics or policies as a basis for choice.

http://www.harrisinteractive.fr/news/2012/CP_HIFR_VSD_27042012.pdf

Edit 19:00  doubl "l" changed to double"m", sorry greek root.