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British exit from EU 2016/17!!!!!


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Things seem to be heating up back in Blighty. If Scotland votes to leave the union and UKIP thrash the cons next year, there could be a referendum on EU membership within three years. If Britain votes to leave (as 65% of polled voters indicated) what would become of expats in Europe??? What about health care, jobs, carte de sejor etc etc...???? Have UKIPERS in Europe really thought this through? Is Britain a little Switzerland???? You can kiss you visits to French hospitals goodbye!!! It's certainly alarming!!!
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The only party to guarantee a referendum is actually the Tories. Ukip winning the election and becoming a government, well that’s like finding rocking horse shite outside your front door, it simply won't happen. So that’s that out the way.

I am absolutely certain now that when they hold the referendum the vote will be to leave the EU. Whatever Cameron says he really knows he can't negotiate with the EU to get special terms for the UK. If you do it for one then you have to do it for all and that will destroy the EU. Now of course he can walk away without blame saying "I tried" because it looks like Jean-Claude Junker will get the top job and he is an ardent federalist (like myself) and he defiantly will not negotiate so Cameron can say "I tried but it was Junkers fault".

Your best bet if you intend to stay in France and Europe is to take French citizenship which surprisingly many Brits living in France are doing, I know of at least five currently going through the process locally and I suspect others elsewhere are doing the same. We are just getting the information together to do it as well.

It is all a bit sad really because Ukip have given so much false information to their supporters that they will all vote to leave the EU. They seem to think they can continue to trade with the EU which they can but because of the tariffs involved UK products in the EU will simply be too expensive. They keep saying "look at Norway they trade within the EU". Well yes look at Norway, they are members of the European Economic Area via the European Free Trade Association which means they have to accept all EU legislation and the membership fees are the same per head as being a full member of the EU except you don't get a vote. This is why, if you notice, Ukip has quietly dropped the bit about how much it costs the UK per day to be a member because to trade with the EU it will cost the same amount of money to join the EFTA.

If you want to know more about how Norway trades with the EU look HERE which is the Norwegian government website.

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The expats in Europe (as I have been for 27 years myself) would see no change in their status. Do you think that the French would throw out all the Brits and London would send all the 100,000s of French currently in the UK back to France? Once out of Europe, immigration will not stop. It will just be controlled by each country under their own policies, as of course it should be.

The real question that needs to be asked by all Europeans is the following - " Do I wish my country to continue to exist as a nation state or would I prefer it to be a region of Europe under the control of Brussels?". The stated aim of the EU is to suppress the nation state. The choice is clear enough - what is your preference?
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So what you are saying is that to do business with Europe, a country must be in political union with Europe.

Not sure that the American's will sign up to that when they set up a trade deal with the EU ;-)
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I really hope that France and the other EU countries with large numbers of Brit expats will actually be as accommodating with us as we hope! I suppose that the UK could come to some kind of agreement with the countries individually, much like the Swiss have done, and to a lesser degree Norway. It's certainly not going to be a picnic, re-writting all the accords. Many ex-pat Brits (such as myself) do very well from French health care etc...there is no reason to believe that this would necessarily continue. Also, what about pensioners in France currently converting their sterling into Euros? Would the pound go into freefall against the Euro? Yes, i think it would, about 1€ to 2pounds - or some such figure....great for export from the UK however!!!
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Timmy - Firstly the TTIP as it is called is now going to it's six rounds of talks although only just. America wants the EU to do business with it, not the other way round. America is particularly interested in the EU investing in the US but the stumbling block as far as the EU is concerned is the guarantees on its investments. Why does America want this, basically because the only large single investor in America is China which of course America actually hates especially given  the recent comments made by Chuck Hagel about China and the South China Sea. There really is a lot more to all this than a simple trade deal. You can read more about it HERE . As I said the UK can of course trade with countries inside the EU put it will have to pay tarifs on the imports to it which could make British goods to expensive in the EU. Thats is one of the reasosn why a cople of large companies have aleady said they will pull out of the UK if it leaves the EU. So what some will say, well try explaining why this is happening to the thousands of people working in these companies that lose their jobs.

As to the UK throwing out the French and the other way round I don't think there will be any massive changes. What will happen is we shall see the return of the residents permit in France along with all the prerequisites that go with it. For British pensioners living in France they may well lose their entitlement to annual increases like they do in other countries and of course there will no longer be reciprocal medical rights. You have to bear in mind that the majority of Brits in France are retired and do not contribute to the French system where as the French in the UK are generally there to work and pay in to the UK tax and NI systems (with the exception of students of course).

I believe in the federalisation of the EU and we know it works just look at Australia, Canada and America . What the EU needs to do is copy the best bits from these and dump the bad bits. However before that is done the EU needs to be more democratic with the President being elected for a start. This will be the first step and hopefully I will see this in my lifetime. As to actually becoming a federal state I believe it will happen although I doubt at my age I will be around to see it.

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Quillan said:

I believe in the federalisation of the EU and we know it works just look at Australia, Canada and America"...................

What you have to remember with places like Australia for example is that the whole country started with the same legal system, the same economic system etc. Therefore the development of a federal system had a common base.

In Europe there are many differences between the various nation states, not the least of which is language. There is also a difference in economic performance. Turning all these into a single federation is rather more difficult than the situation in Australia.
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Well no not really. In all these countries there are rich and poor states which is the reason to federalise, the rich support the poor and we all go forward together and everyone benefits. Language is a problem at present but with English being so popular and being the mandatory second language in schools that will cease to be a problem later on. Don't forget America also had a language problem in the early days. If one believed the UK press there is a language problem in the UK what with all the immigrants. None of these problems are really serious if you have the will to overcome them. As to the legal system, well according to Ukip for instance having a unified legal system is already taking place.
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Even N. Sarkozy was making noises about reforming the EU. Many member states want reforms it is not just the UK.

Sarkozy though wants some sort of new 'top dog' EU, with only France and Germany in it, an exclusive members club? a marriage? although how Germany would view that I do not know. IF he ever gets any power again, who knows.

For us, well we have always envisaged a possible move back to France if the pension was going to become difficult to get as we live in the UK. I really do not want to, but I most certainly would if necessary.

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[quote user="monsieur macon"]I really hope that France and the other EU countries with large numbers of Brit expats will actually be as accommodating with us as we hope! I suppose that the UK could come to some kind of agreement with the countries individually, much like the Swiss have done, and to a lesser degree Norway. It's certainly not going to be a picnic, re-writting all the accords. Many ex-pat Brits (such as myself) do very well from French health care etc...there is no reason to believe that this would necessarily continue. Also, what about pensioners in France currently converting their sterling into Euros? Would the pound go into freefall against the Euro? Yes, i think it would, about 1€ to 2pounds - or some such figure....great for export from the UK however!!![/quote]

One Euro to two pounds, what kind of a day dream  world do you live in. If the people of the UK want to leave the EU and vote to do so, then that's their choice. That choice will be for the Majority of the 55 odd million or what ever number there is living in the UK, after the Scots get independence.                                                                  

 Long before the EU British people lived in other countries and had reciprocal health agreements and other rights, so I can't see anything changing. If your worried, do as someone has already said; become a French Citizen now. Of course I suppose you could always try to claim Scottish residence, Salmond and his pipsqueak assistant would welcome you with open arms to get another vote, and then you can always hope they get into the EU.[:D]

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Crikey,I can't stop laughing at the OP! I think he must've had some sort of weird dream and then woke up and wrote it all down.

If I were in the UK right now, I'd be looking out of the window to check whether there were pigs landing at Heathrow! UKIP beating the Tories? £2 to €1? Me, the 13th Duke of Wybourne, in a convent, with my reputation? Has no-one thought of the consequences?
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lol...yes what would Lefarge think of that????

i suppose French citizenship is one way out of the problem...if the French want us!!!!!!! Naturalization is a long drawn out process, but those of us who are married can obviously fast track. I've got kids born in France, so i guess at least they are entitled to French nationality. But the Prefecture told me last week that all new borns must now submit a demand for nationality as of 14 years old...its not longer automatic....
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[quote user="NickP"][quote user="monsieur macon"]I really hope that France and the other EU countries with large numbers of Brit expats will actually be as accommodating with us as we hope! I suppose that the UK could come to some kind of agreement with the countries individually, much like the Swiss have done, and to a lesser degree Norway. It's certainly not going to be a picnic, re-writting all the accords. Many ex-pat Brits (such as myself) do very well from French health care etc...there is no reason to believe that this would necessarily continue. Also, what about pensioners in France currently converting their sterling into Euros? Would the pound go into freefall against the Euro? Yes, i think it would, about 1€ to 2pounds - or some such figure....great for export from the UK however!!![/quote]

One Euro to two pounds, what kind of a day dream  world do you live in. If the people of the UK want to leave the EU and vote to do so, then that's their choice. That choice will be for the Majority of the 55 odd million or what ever number there is living in the UK, after the Scots get independence.                                                                  
 Long before the EU British people lived in other countries and had reciprocal health agreements and other rights, so I can't see anything changing. If your worried, do as someone has already said; become a French Citizen now. Of course I suppose you could always try to claim Scottish residence, Salmond and his pipsqueak assistant would welcome you with open arms to get another vote, and then you can always hope they get into the EU.[:D]
[/quote]For once I am in broad agreement with NickP on many of the points he makes. If the pound does slip against the euro it will be a gradual slip based on economic performance and not a sudden lurch. Of course the result of a referendum must be respected. That is the essence of democracy. When I was living in Sweden long before Sweden joined the EU there were double taxation treaties and health agreements in place so I foresee no problems in reverting to that situation.

However the only way to be a Scottish resident is to live in Scotland. Salmond's white paper proposes that a large category of people would be entitled to dual citizenship of Scotland and the rest of the UK so that might be a solution for some. There is of course no guarantee that the remaining UK would allow dual citizenship in these circumstances. Only time will tell

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[quote user="monsieur macon"]lol...yes what would Lefarge think of that????

i suppose French citizenship is one way out of the problem...if the French want us!!!!!!! Naturalization is a long drawn out process, but those of us who are married can obviously fast track. I've got kids born in France, so i guess at least they are entitled to French nationality. But the Prefecture told me last week that all new borns must now submit a demand for nationality as of 14 years old...its not longer automatic....[/quote]

This doesn't make any sense to me. IF you are married to a french person, then your kids would be french anyway.

Otherwise what the Prefecture has told you is not correct. Look on the link I give, and it was exactly the same 14 years ago when my eldest son, born in France was 18.

http://vosdroits.service-public.fr/particuliers/F295.xhtml

I never presumed that my boys would want french nationality.  I do no believe it was my place to do so. So when they were both 18 I took them along to the Tribunal d'Instance and they chose.

IF I had done nothing, then they would have been french by default. And the paperwork needed later for those who don't know that that happens must be a nightmare. It was bad enough when we did know what they wanted to do.

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I think that looking backwards to a time when the EU was not as it currently is can be misleading. Yes there were double tax agreements between individual countries and groups of countries but that has now gone and been replaced by EU regulations i.e, the treaties/agreements are for EU member states in general controlled by the EU and not by individual states. On that basis if the UK left the EU it would not have any tax agreements with the EU (unless it negotiates with it) and it won't be able to negotiate with individual EU member states like France or Spain as an example.

Likewise with healthcare. These are no longer 'rights' that have been negotiated with individual countries but with the EU as a whole. To put it another way the S1 form is not unique to the UK it is an EU form that is translated for each individual country. This is the 'base' system that cannot be changed by any individual EU state/country but it can have modifications added to enable it to be appended to by individual members states. Bit like when you get your pension from the UK and you present your S1. You get the same medical cover as a French national (but paid to France by the UK) but you can no longer get your European Health Insurance Card from France, you must get it from the UK.

State pension payments or more to the point annual increases are paid to you if you live in any state/country within the EU and also THESE countries. If the UK left they would have to negotiate with the EU and not a individual state/country within the EU. The question is will the UK government actually do this more than will the EU allow them to do this because it would be in the UK's financial advantage not to as it saves them money in the long run.

The bottom line to all this is nobody actually knows what would happen to 'us' if the UK leaves the EU. I have seen this question asked in other forums (French and Spanish) and there does seem to be a certain amount of 'denial' just like with Salmonds attitude to Scotland not being thrown out of the EU etc even when the 'top dog' of the EU tells him otherwise. What effect all this will have at an individual level nobody really knows but it could make life very difficult especially with regards to healthcare and pensions.

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[quote user="crakpot"]It appears 4.7 million brits live abroad I have no idea how many in Europe but lets all go back together and demand benefits /housing[/quote]

If your entitled to benefits and housing then you could possibly get

it.  Although selling your château in France or castle in Spain would

put money in your bank and make you self sufficient financially; so

you'd get nothing. As a holiday home owner I have no worries, I

contribute to both economies vote in the one I reside in; and if at the

time I think that a UK withdrawal from the EU is in the best interests

of the UK then that's how I will vote. Funny how all the insecurities

are now arising; when a little while ago it was all aren't I glad I live

in France/Spain the UK is going down the pan etc.[:)]

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I think the insecurities are to do with the UK leaving the EU and the effect it may (or may not) have on Expats living in other EU countries. The feelings many people may have towards the UK are probably the same which is why they are worried. Simply put they don't want to be 'forced' to return to the UK which still, in their eyes, has massive problems.

I just read the article that Wooly has put up about France in another thread. It mentions the great difference between Germany and France in many areas and unemployment is one of them. Whilst the UK is not in the same boat as France it does lag behind Germany. Then there is the question of things like the NHS which like it or not needs serious sorting out as it simply can't go on in its present form. Fortunately, unlike France, the UK no longer has the problem of over powerful unions to hamper its growth just poor management and and lack of government support. Thats just a couple of things and I am sure many Expats could draw up a very long list of reasons why they see the UK as a 'dead duck'.

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[quote user="Quillan"]

I think the insecurities are to do with the UK leaving the EU and the effect it may (or may not) have on Expats living in other EU countries. The feelings many people may have towards the UK are probably the same which is why they are worried. Simply put they don't want to be 'forced' to return to the UK which still, in their eyes, has massive problems.

 Expats could draw up a very long list of reasons why they see the UK as a 'dead duck'.

[/quote]

Well, here is one expat who do not think of the UK as a "dead duck" and I think NickP has also made a similar negative point regarding the UK.

I think that the UK, on the whole, is great.  I could never think of it as anything other than a wonderful country.  We live in France for personal reasons, which I won't bore people by describing, and it's been a tremendous adventure for us and I truly believe that relocating has kept ze leetle grey cellules still sparking.

I am not too worried aboutthe  UK leaving the EU either.  It will take them years to arrange any proposed departure and, in the meantime, I'm making the most of the fine weather which has finally arived in la Dordogne.

Anyone for tennis?  Only on television en direct from Roland Garros, of course.  You didn't think for one moment that I was going to wear one of those skimpy outfits, showing all my physical imperfections, and chase around after a furry ball, do you?[;-)]

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I don't know about years but when they were talking about Scotland the EU President was talking almost immediately and full 'disentanglement' within a couple of months. Fortunately, if Scotland becomes independent, we will get a good idea of the reality of the issue.
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