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If the bloody Tories get their way and we exit the EU., I can see all sorts of problems for expats and people (like myself) hoping to make a move.

Health cost, Pensions to mention a few plus actually living in a foreign country as an alien.

I just cannot see it ending well.
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No need to cross bridges till you come to them[;-)]

First, the referendum might not happen at all though it's possibly a bit difficult for them to backtrack now.  They might do a "deal" (OK, a deal in name only) with the EU and, even in the event of a referendum, they will advise people to vote to stay in.

Then, even if a referendum results in a decision to leave, there may be reciprocal health arrangements.

Finally, if the worst comes to the worst (and I am not persuaded just yet that it will come to that), we may indeed all have to leave to go back to the UK.  And that's fine because, after all, we did come to France from there!

Meanwhile, I am putting in place some changes to my house to make it more marketable should it come to that and I mean to have a head start of some sort at that time.

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People moved to France, even before the EU made it 'easy' to do so. IF you want to move then just get on with it. Keep up to date with every last thing and make sure your french is very very good so that you can deal with anything you need to as a french resident.

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Certainly don't think they will advise an 'IN' vote for fear of the far right Tories. There was a majority of Tories happy to stay 'in' but the country has lurched to the right. Don't forget the UKIP voters.

There will be a referendum, the right will see to that.
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The reason for a referendum - in 2017, not next year, unless there is an upset of some kind - is for exactly the same reason that Wilson held one about 40 years ago.

To keep the rebels under control.

Wilson's referendum was to shut Tony Benn up. Cameron's referendum is an attempt to close down a small group of right wing Tory MPs. True, the playing field has been muddied by emergence of UKIP.

David Cameron wants to stay in the EU. He is trying to make continued membership appear attractive by talking about "renegotiation" before the event.

I know few people who want to leave the EU (but that may say something about the circles in which I move) and I would be very disappointed were it to happen. UKIP is certainly a problem - its message essentially is that we should go back to the past. The surprising result for the Labour Party in the General Election appears to be mainly due to defection of Labour voters to UKIP. My guess is that UKIP's primary appeal is to relatively unsophisticated voters whose voting behaviour is somewhat tribal.

In order for any referendum to be meaningful I think that there should be a large-scale public discussion of the matter, with impartial analyses of the claims being made on both sides of the argument. Where either side is being shown to be claiming something fallacious, then such claims should be challenged.

We shall see.

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[quote user="chateaubriant"]My point is, the Tories won the election with a mandate to hold a referendum on membership of the EU. I'm of the opinion that, because the country has turned to the right, the result will be withdrawal of the EU.[/quote]

I know where you are coming from, and I, too, am disquieted by the election result.

But you cannot predict a simple Yes/No result from the results of a multi-party First Past the Post election. I don't think it will be as straightforward as that.

A probable consequence of an Out vote would be the independence of Scotland. Cameron doesn't want that, nor does he want to leave the EU.

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The Tory manifesto promised a referendum by the end of 2017. This does not preclude it being held in 2016. This is being resisted by those in favour of  a Brexit as it has been suggested an early vote is more likely to result in a win for staying in.
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If the electorate vote to exit then that's democracy, the Tories put it in their mandate and got voted in. You don't want it, vote against it, simples. The referendum is for the citizens of the UK, not just a few people who have chosen to emigrate to France. As has already been said and it's been said many times, people moved to France long before the EU the only thing that might change is carnets once again may be required to bring in goods and chattels. Personally I dont think there will be an exit as I believe Cameron will renegotiate the contentious issues, and everybody will be happy. Although from your comment about Bloody Tories, you obviously backed the wrong horse last week, never mind; but you might have to get used to being in opposition for along time.[:D]

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In spite of us moving when there was the notion of free movement, when we did it each country was still basically running under it's own rules and sovereignty (feels like a very distant memory) and we had quite a few hoops to jump through when we got to France and looking back we had to learn a lot FAST, learn how the french did things, and it was good actually.

And at the time I was driven mad, but 'NOW' drives me madder still. I won't hold my breath that Cameron really can renegociate, feel like since the Maastrict treaty we have all been suckered into a black hole with the ONLY winners being eurocrats in all their guises.

Never trusted the EEC enough to want to go in in the first place, so my vote was NO all those years ago. If we leave, well, it could affect us a lot, and we may end up moving back to France. And maybe have hoops to jump through again, but really, I know how to do that, I've done it.

There are other things in the future that worry me, not leaving the EU, although I am not a betting person, but I just cannot believe that for all the complaining, the vote would be to leave. People helas, love to moan, but very few actually do more than rale at home or at the bus stop or supermarket counter.

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My belief, before anyone jumps down my throat for my left leaning preference, is if a referendum was held tomorrow the result would be to leave.

I say that because the overwhelming topic of contention is immigration.

People of every political persuasion, for differing reasons, want immigration to be severely limited or stopped.

They would vote to leave the EU.

It is of course the raison d'etre for UKIP.

As 'Idun' posted, I too was persuaded to vote no in 1975 but now I believe it would be madness to leave.

As to CK 11 post, I quote,

'My guess is that UKIP's primary appeal is to relatively unsophisticated voters whose voting behaviour is somewhat tribal.'

that maybe but they will vote to leave.

All this is actually getting away from my point or are you deliberately distracting the conversation because any expats may have a great deal to lose if there is a withdrawal?.

The point being how withdrawal may affect the lives and finances of British citizens living in France relying on British pensions and reciprocal health cover. ie. not the 20% top up health insurance cover?
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UKIP got 12% of the vote in the General Election and even if all the conservative voters voted to leave then there would still be less than 50% wanting to leave. Of course there are split opinions in all the parties. Even George Osbourne is said to in favour of staying in the EU.

With some of the popular press making a lot of noise about leaving it is easy to exaggerate the strength of support for leaving. Once people realise the risks to their jobs in leaving then this may rally support for staying in.

What concerns me is the effect that uncertainty will have on business and investment until we know the result. IMO the sooner we have the referendum the better.

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I think it would be a mistake to rush into a referendum. People need time to appreciate the facts, as opposed to the emotive stuff in some parts of the press. Also, time must be given to Cameron to try to negotiate some changes to the way the EU operates. There is little doubt that the EU needs reform.
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I do believe that the EU is salvagable, but it would need a lot of work done to make it the way I could consider it fair.

Chateaubriand, we are in the reverse situation, UK residents with exclusive french income, and that could affect us a lot. If we needed to, we'd simply move on if it posed problems for us. Not a big deal.

[6]would we get a cheap property from fleeing brits?[Www]

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The result of the Referendum on Europe will be a decision that suits  the residents of the UK, depending on the evidence at the time. Even if the UK leaves there will be no changes for emigrants to France, you'll still get your pensions and health care, and don't worry Chateaubrian you can still vote for the left, as for the suggestion by CK11 that all UKIP voters are unsophisticated is pompous beyond comprehension, and probably only adds to reasons to vote for them. If of course if the UK does leave you could always emigrate to Scotland and join the Scottish Nasty Party, they seem to think that the EU would welcome them with open arms. Yeh right,  I bet Brussels cant wait. [:D]

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Just found this from the think tank Centre for European Reform cer.org.uk/

Quote:

But in the event that the UK decided to leave, some settlement would

have to be negotiated with other EU member-states, to ensure that

British emigrants could continue to live there. The outcome of such

a negotiation may not be as straightforward as one might assume.

Retired immigrants are on average a net drain on the public finances

because of their heavy use of healthcare. In any bilateral negotiations

between Britain and these four countries, the fact that free migration

is more costly for France, Germany, Spain and Ireland than it is for

Britain would not go unnoticed, and Britons abroad may find that

access to healthcare becomes more expensive: currently, the Spanish

government pays for British migrants’ visits to GPs.

Unquote:

Yes I know they are pro EU. but well respected by the Guardian and Financial Times
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As I have said earlier, bridges need only be crossed when we are faced with them.

No amount of speculation now can bear any fruit.  So much can change between now and a possible referendum in the future.

Let me rally spirits:  we are Brits, we manage, we adapt; and changes, while massive, are not going to be seismic as in the earthquakes in Nepal!

Too much worry about things which may never happen................[8-|]

And how cushy our lives are compared to the majority of people's around the world.............[:)]

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NickP wrote:

The result of the Referendum on Europe will be a decision that suits  the residents of the UK, depending on the evidence at the time. Even if the UK leaves there will be no changes for emigrants to France, you'll still get your pensions

ER based on what? You may get a pension that is frozen and eroded by inflation year on year and eventually becomes all but worthless. This is the situation in our "close" Commonwealth friends in Aus and NZ.

and health care,

Again based on what? If the UK joins the EEA, then we are probably OK. If not then it is up to debate and you can see the media advantage from" taking away health care for these Brits living it up in the sun."

and don't worry Chateaubrian you can still vote for the left,

Well maybe he can, but I cannot. I am disenfranchised by a UK law, which is at least unusual within Europe if not the world. I pay taxes to three different nations and yet a, now barred from voting for any of their national Governments who set the taxes I am forced to pay.

as for the suggestion by CK11 that all UKIP voters are unsophisticated is pompous beyond comprehension, and probably only adds to reasons to vote for them. If of course if the UK does leave you could always emigrate to Scotland and join the Scottish Nasty Party, they seem to think that the EU would welcome them with open arms. Yeh right,  I bet Brussels cant wait.

Well in a different situation from that before, just maybe they would welcome a renegade Scottish desire to join the EU.

The previous scenario was a region wanting to declare independence from an EU state and still retain EU membership. The new potential scenario is a part of a former EU state, that has left the EU wishes to proclaim its independence and return to its EU home. Tell the story the right way and even the Spanish can be convinced to support it

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