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anyone know what the euro is going to do?


Mattyj198
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We were really lucky, we transferred a large chunk when the rate was really good a month or so ago.  Since then it's gone pants :-(  The man I was dealing with when we did our transfer said he expected it to continue downward for a while and said he didn't expect it to be back at it'

s current level (September 2010) for a good few months.

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[quote user="Mattyj198"]I still have not transferred the money for the payment of my house yet.  I need to do it within the next few months but I am not sure if the euro is going to continue to climb or if it is going to drop.

Anyone have any ideas?
[/quote]

No clue about the Euro, however if you use a money broker, for instance Halewoods (HIFX) you can secure the good Euro rate for a small deposit and that rate can stand for up to two years. Some brokers, currency4less only give you a few months so usually make on your hardship if you don't complete in time [6]

Considering the rate a few weeks ago was 1.21 that would have been a good plan to secure your funds at that rate.

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It's impossible to predict ... whatever decision you take, at some point you will think "oh if only I'd transferred my money earlier/later ...". We bought out house and transferred money ovre at 1.4750 some years ago, and a few weeks later we could have got a better rate at 1.50. And I spent a few months thinking "if only I'd waited I could have got more". But, in retrospect, it was a fantastic rate compared to now.

At some point you have to take the plunge and transfer your money. You could speak to some of the money companies - HIFx, Moneycorp, and ask their advice. they have a little more insight into what is happening although it is in their interests to make the deal now, after all they get paid commission.

So my advice is - look at the rate over a week. Trust in your own decision - it's based on the facts you see. You can't predict the future and neither can we. Transfer the money. Be satisfied with the decision. And if the rate changes and goes down, congratulate yourself on your foresight in getting the best rate at the time. And if it goes the other way, just pour yourself a drink and say "ah, hindsight is a wonderful thing" and accept that you made a decision based on the facts at the time.

Good luck. We've all been there at some time ....
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Once again someone opens their big mouth and the pound drops through the floor:

"MPC member Adam Posen (then) announced that there was a clear

case for further Q.E in the U.K. Almost immediately the Pound fell away in the FX markets and the low €1.17 level soon be-

came €1.16. For the time being the drop has halted at €1.1618 which is a four-month low against the euro. As previously men-

tioned, threats of further monetary easing are an absolute killer for any currency and the Pound will have a very tough time

climbing higher against the euro. Even if Q.E is not introduced for some time, the damage has been done by the MPC com-

ments".

Source: www.currencytoday.co.uk

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as I write the rate is 1.1580, if anyone could foresee the direction of movement they would be rich.....

market advice is sell today, since changes to eu budget deficit rules could go against it, also it has risen sharply in the past week or so and a correction is often the case,

although I would guess the drop will only be a cent or so.
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We have exactly the same problem. We need to move money over in the next three months, but still need to complete in the Uk, which should be the end next week.

I spoke with Moneycorp as we based the purchase of our house here in France on 1,20 which they told me a month ago. They have now stated that the Euro is dropping as the economic market in USA is not great so brokers etc have stopped buying Dollars and are now buying Euro's making the euro strong. Who knows if this is true, but it seems plausable.

You can forward buy Euros as long as you can put 10% up front, which at the Mo, we can't do until we complete in the UK.

Fingers crossed, it wont drop much more, but who knows.
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[quote user="Jay"]Once again someone opens their big mouth and the pound drops through the floor:  "MPC member Adam Posen (then) announced that there was a clear

case for further Q.E in the U.K. Almost immediately the Pound fell away in the FX markets and the low €1.17 level soon became €1.16. For the time being the drop has halted at €1.1618 which is a four-month low against the euro. As previously mentioned, threats of further monetary easing are an absolute killer for any currency and the Pound will have a very tough time climbing higher against the euro. Even if Q.E is not introduced for some time, the damage has been done by the MPC comments".

[/quote]

Was it deliberate so as to keep the pound down and encourage exports?

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And today's news (BBC) is that China is prepared to support the Euro (including an offer to buy Greece's debt) - as some kind of snub against the USA's demand that the Yuan be revalued upwards. German manufacturing is picking up, too. The report suggests that the upward movement of the Euro against Sterling is not about the weakness of Sterling but rather the reduction of uncertainty about the Euro.
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I also heard that it's due to the strengthening euro, rather than the pound weakening for reasons to do with UK problems, Clarkkent. German exports are booming apparently, especially to China, and no more nasties appear to have come out of the woodwork in Greece, Spain etc. although there was the news about Ireland's position being worse - but at least they seem to intent on tackling it.

We had to get cash out of an ATM to pop into the French bank account over the weekend and it seemed such a tiny exchange rate! But at least we only need small amounts, unlike others who need large sums for property purchase etc. [:(]

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  • 2 weeks later...

[quote user="adobill"]I thought this forum was supposed to be helpfull, apparently not[/quote]

Well if anyone really did know what was going to happen then they would probably also know the winning lottery numbers, the 3 O'clock winner at Sandown Park and they wouldn't be posting here, they would be sitting on a beach somewhere with a billion in the bank. [:D] Seriously, we can all guess, my personal guess is that it will fall even further and get near parity by Christmas but then what do I know, its only a guess.

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[quote user="gardengirl "]Well, Adobill, I guess most of our crystal balls are in for refurbishment![/quote][:D]

I posted a link in another thread on this subject (there are, shall we say, several) to a recent big feature on FT.com re the euro.  There were several articles and in-depth analyses by some wise pundits and economists and even they didn't all agree on this subject.  What hope have we (with the exception of those few on this forum who know something about economics - me I did it to A level and only manged to get an O so that's me out)?

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[quote user="Quillan"]

I've only got one...

[/quote]

I didn't have you down as being similarly afflicted to Hitler, Q?

Regarding euro exchange rate forecasts, the 'expert economists' at Crown Currency Exchange thought they knew what was going to happen so they could offer rather generous terms to future euro purchasers. And they got it spectacularly wrong, so how are we likely to be any more accurate in our guesswork?

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Crystal balls Will, crystal balls, nothing so personal.

I was thinking whilst ironing tonight, mindless task I know but it lets the mind wonder, what did happen to all the 'experts' forecasting doom and gloom? I seem to remember here or perhaps another forum that this time last year 'they' said it would be 1.25 + by Christmas and back to 1.40 + in the summer, if memory serves it got nowhere near. I then remember a post with a link just after the Greece bail out, can't remember who posted it and to be truthful I can't be bother but it was something to do with all the worlds 'experts' (mainly US of course what with them having no interest in the Euro [;-)] ) that Greece wouldn't pay back a penny, Spain was next followed by Portugal, the Euro had about 6 weeks life in it and the EU would cease to exist in a few months. Well Greece appears to be paying its loan back (I can find nothing that says it isn't), the Euros still here and getting stronger, the Chinese seem to be buying in to the Euro quite a bit as are some other countries and last time I looked France and all the other countries were still part of the EU.

The problem with the 'experts' now is that they have been constantly getting it wrong for so long now that when they finally do get it write nobody will listen (that's assuming they do get it right one day). So I think the best advice on when to exchange Sterling for Euros is to flip a coin, tails for 'do it now', heads for 'wait a week and flip again'. I am sure you will have more success that way than listening to the 'experts'.

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[quote user="Braco"]The Economist Big Mac index is showing the Euro 20% over valued against the $ while it is showing Sterling as 2% undervalued.[/quote]

Strange about the Euro and Dollar or is it. Lets face it the US does have it in for the Euro because they fear it and it's popularity. The US controlled most of the worlds money till the Euro came along.

I see in the IMF/World Bank meeting the Euro came under fire again with them saying its been allowed to get too strong. Funny mind how both are US organisations (irregardless of what they would have you believe), are based in the US and the US have the largest amount of votes by far of any other country and they come under US banking law. I'm not a great fan of the Euro being so high but anything that really upsets the US and gets right up its nose is fine by me. [:P]

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