two views of the necessity for a 3rd confinement

[NormanH]

Unfortunately I seem to have spoken to soon and the thread has been taken over by the sort of unhelpful stating of unsubstantiated opinion that is often the curse of Anglophone Fora.

[idun]

Yes, I reckon she would be worse than Macron. I just do.

 Jean-Marie was around for

ever too, and I knew enough french people who voted for him in the first

round, just to show the main parties their displeasure.......... and

that meant that they had a rude awakening when he came second in the

first round in 2002, and ended up against Chirac in the second round, who ofcourse won. I

would have preferred Jospin, but he didn't get a look in.

Marine,

well, she too has been around for an age, but I would hope that she

would not get as far as the second round. Extreme right wingers do worry

me, as much as extreme left wingers do. And Macron may be 'awful', but

please never Marine.

[alittlebitfrench]

Norman said "Unfortunately I seem to have spoken to soon and the thread has been taken over by the sort of unhelpful stating of unsubstantiated opinion that is often the curse of Anglophone Fora"

Well actually no Norman, there is a big link between a 3rd confinement and the next presedential election.

If you had watched the news this weekend, you would know that the presidential race has just started.

Macrons team started the race by attacking MLP. Because she is his biggest threat.....again.

If you look at the polls, they are very much neck and neck.

You should watch French news Norman. It helps.

A 3rd confinmement is a politically sensitive issue for Macron. It would not go down well. It would not look good.It will probably cause riots.

I think I am correct in saying that a few weeks back, MLP called for the closure of schools. I want that !!!!!

If cases rises in March as expected....

.https://www.lci.fr/sante/variant-anglais-sans-mesure-de-controle-l-inserm-anticipe-une-croissance-rapide-des-cas-en-mars-2178461.html

It is going to get very politically interesting.

[Ken]

Marine Le Pen will never be President. speak to French people and you will hear this time and time again. Macron will win be default!

As regards the virus: Deaths in France now exceed those of the U.K. Whatever the reason, herd immunity or vaccinations, that the rates of disease and deaths has plummeted is great news for the U.K.

If, and I don't think it likely, the French people are actually well aware of the cock-up made by the E.U. then it wouldn't bode well for Macron. Unfortunately I don't think the average French person is too interested in politics; or at least beyond what they see on the t.V.!!

[alittlebitfrench]

You are right on all points there Ken.

Except, that Macron is hated equally as MLP. Nobody wants to see him again.

Also, MLP will win on 'sercurity' which is the single most important issue affecting peoples lives. Including ours.

Life has become too violent in France and no one is doing anything about it.

Solve/propose a soloution to that problem, and you have won.

[Ken]

I agree completely that violence in France has increased quite dramatically in recent years. Unfortunately the French have this hang up about the N.F (as it used to be called) and the holocaust (and I certainly do not want to start another conversation about that! ) However the French connect the two and that is why Marine will never be President.

The vaccination fiasco and the violence is doing Macron great harm but in the final analysis (or the final round!) Macron will, I believe, win. It is as much the voting system as anything else that will bring this about. I also believe, to get back to the subject in hand, that there will be another general lockdown. Deaths are already rising and Macron can only ignore it for so long!!

[NormanH]

albf  "I think I am correct in saying that a few weeks back, MLP called for the closure of schools. I want that !!!!!

"

"

If albf lived in France with children at school here he would be aware that schools are either already on a two-week break, or willl be by the end of this week.

https://vacances-scolaires.education/academie-orleans-tours/

That was why a third full confinement was delayed, in the hope that the school holidays would be a sufficient  factor in delaying the transmission of the virus .

[Lehaut]

"As regards the virus: Deaths in France now exceed those of the U.K"

As of 15 Feb 2021

UK: 117,116

France: 81,814

[alittlebitfrench]

Norman, schools beak up on different weeks in Feb.

We break up at the end of this week. Parisiens broke up last week.

Why thinking school holidays would be a sufficient factor in delaying the transmission of the virus is beyond me.

Everyone is travelling on holiday around France. I.e spreading the virus.

We all wear masks. We are very careful.

Last week OH and our three kids had SEVERE gastro. I mean severe. 5 days in bed. Me I did not suffer but had to clear up the mess.

The gastro was caught at school I suspect.

So masks don't really help against gastro at school. Think about covid !

[Ken]

Well I did mean daily deaths. I should have made it clear. My fault entirely in thinking people would know that.

[mint]

[quote user="Ken"]Marine Le Pen will never be President. speak to French people and you will hear this time and time again. Macron will win be default!

As regards the virus: Deaths in France now exceed those of the U.K. Whatever the reason, herd immunity or vaccinations, that the rates of disease and deaths has plummeted is great news for the U.K.

If, and I don't think it likely, the French people are actually well aware of the cock-up made by the E.U. then it wouldn't bode well for Macron. Unfortunately I don't think the average French person is too interested in politics; or at least beyond what they see on the t.V.!![/quote]

I really cannot let a sweeping statement like that pass without contesting it.  Where on earth did you get an idea like that?

I live in a village of less than 500 and for both local and national elections, the turn-out is between 95 and 98%!  That hardly points to a lack of interest does it?

As I myself am intensely interested in politics, I often speak or write about this subject to French friends that I have made in the 2 départements in France where I have lived.  They are not by any means all parochial or rural folk, in case anyone assume that.

In reality, what I find is a distinct lack of interest in British people that I know.  When we first came to live in our village, there were at least 2 British couples who have lived here in excess of 20 years and who had NEVER voted in municipal or Euro elections.  They'd be hard pushed to name a French politician apart from the president.  And these people are not untypical.

As for covid death figures, it doesn't matter whether you count them daily, weekly or monthly or since the start of the pandemic and we start counting, the French figures are simply BETTER.  OTOH, you can't compare British and French numbers of vaccinated.  The UK has vaccinated between 6 and 7 times more than the French.

It would be good if people back up what they say or at least check up on their facts before posting "fake news".  Maybe, they have read up too much on American politics and not enough of the politics of the country in which they live[:D][:P]

[NormanH]

I have started another thread about comparing vaccination figures which has a link to the John Hopkins site. That also has information about such things as the sad death toll in different places.

[alittlebitfrench]

Mint said ...."As for covid death figures, it doesn't matter whether you count them daily, weekly or monthly or since the start of the pandemic and we start counting, the French figures are simply BETTER"

They are better and worse.

If you take in account population density they are not so good.

For example, Paris/Ile de France figures are worse than the UK in terms of deaths per sq km/population density.

Also...if the +- 400 deaths per day trend continues in France with no lockdown and no vaccines....France will surpass the UK in deaths. Even Carol Vord can work that one out.

[Ken]

First, I said that daily deaths in France exceed that of the U.K. That isn't fake news. 2nd, voting and having an interest in politics are two different things.

3rd most of your rant concerns yourself and Brits. I was talking about how I have found French people to general be.

Stop being hysterical and you will see that what I have written is accurate, at least as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps you think Le Pen will be President! Or perhaps what induced your diatribe was that I criticised the E.U. I too follow politics quite closely, French, American and British but I don't usually brag about it!

[alittlebitfrench]

Ken is correct again in all the points he has made.

Blimey Ken, where did you come from ?

ALBF had the monopoly when talking France.

I am feeling quite redundant. LOL.

[cajal]

[quote user="mint"]

I live in a village of less than 500 and for both local and national elections, the turn-out is between 95 and 98%!  That hardly points to a lack of interest does it?[/quote]

I don't believe there is a correlation between someone, every few years, placing a cross on a ballot paper and also necessarily having an interest in politics.

Just out of interest, how many of the 95% - 98% voting French residents of your village can name a French politician apart from the president?

[idun]

Do you really think that France is more violent.......... it was violent from the first day I lived there. Maghreb kids being shot by the police when simply admiring a car. Gangs shooting and killing folk. AND then there were the demonstrations of various types which were violent and destructive. Along with the country being brought to a halt with lorry drivers strikes, because we mustn't for get the strikes too, of which I knew of many!

So really, is it worse, or is it just what you are seeing is  'now and recent past' without good reference to say  the last fifty odd years, or in my case, 40 years since we moved there. Still I wasn't in France in '68 and they were apparently 'hair raising days too'.

[alittlebitfrench]

Idun asked 'Do you really think that France is more violent'

YES !

Violence is out of control in France.

But not just on the street. In the home, school, homophobia, against women, in a car...everything.

If there was a French version of the Daily Mail in France you would have a heart attack reading it.

Can I remind folks that a 'teacher' got beheaded outside a school. !!!!!

It is like, this is everyday France. This is France. get used to it.

In the last few days we had the situation in Trappes.

Ooooh and then Poissy.

It never stops.

[idun]

I agree that schools have become more violent, teachers attacked, that was starting before I left.

Prior to this it was more like say 50's England where the teachers hit the kids. Seen it with my own eyes, primary school, a boy who was a very slow learner being clipped around the head and then the male teacher gave him a kick on his backside.

My son came home with an expensive jumper torn from neck to waist, because he had bad marks. My son was 15 then, and all I can say is that, that he did not deck that teacher showed remarkable control on the part of my son, he was quite capable of decking just about any man at that time, one way or another.

The beheadings well, that is another story of people who have taken on beliefs which were in our past, but are alive and well with some.

Domestic violence, attacks on women and children.......... was never news......and there is the Droit de l'Enfance in France. And if you think that the police/gendarmes would truly get involved in a woman being attacked or domestic violence, well, they were loathe to do so.

I shall pm you ALBF.

[Ken]

I'm a cockney kid (a real one!) and have been living in France for 23 years. Blimey, rather gives you away too!!! At a guess, North London? Haven't a clue who or what is ALBF by the way!

[Ken]

precisely!!

[Ken]

Precisely.

[mint]

[quote user="Ken"]First, I said that daily deaths in France exceed that of the U.K. That isn't fake news. 2nd, voting and having an interest in politics are two different things.

3rd most of your rant concerns yourself and Brits. I was talking about how I have found French people to general be.

Stop being hysterical and you will see that what I have written is accurate, at least as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps you think Le Pen will be President! Or perhaps what induced your diatribe was that I criticised the E.U. I too follow politics quite closely, French, American and British but I don't usually brag about it![/quote]

Ranting, hysterical?  What utter rubbish you talk.  Well, perhaps I shouldn't use the word "rubbish".....I avoided it in my first post and tried not to be "personal".  I was disagreeing with your statement, certainly not bragging about myself or anything like that.

And I do disagree profoundly that "voting and having an interest in politics are two different things"!  How do you draw that conclusion?  Do we not vote because we have ideas, concepts maybe even ideals and want to change or at least shake things up a bit?  Why do people take sides, argue, go to the polls?  If none of that constitute an interest in politics, what is it about then?

As for whoever it was that asked if I knew French people who could name a politician besides the president, the answer is, of course, I do.  My neighbours, the cantonnièr, our gardener who came yesterday, all the French friends I walk with weekly, the French friends I go on holidays with....I can assure you that the notion that "French people aren't interested in politics" is as ridiculous as it is insulting.

I am not in the habit of discussing things with people who can make such an incorrect statement as to say I think le Pen will become president.  I certainly think no such thing, at least not at the present time, this far away still from next year's election.  And anyway, I'd thank you not to impute intentions and thoughts to me that I do NOT have.

[Ken]

I presume our conversation is at an end. May I recommend a tranquilliser or at least a strong Ricard or surely you will blow a fuse!

[anotherbanana]

Let's keep it cool guys and gels, svp.