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Hollande & What it means to ExPats?


Richard
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Hi All,

I may have posted this in the wrong section, so Mods feel free to move it if appropriate...

As we are actively looking for our French property, we were wondering what impact to ExPats there might be should Hollande get elected???

With such a potential shift in French politics, we feel like we should "put the breaks on" and wait to see what happens.... It's anybody's guess really, but we're quite concerned.

Should we keep on with our plans to move to France? Wait a while?

Cheers Everyone!

Richard
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There are a couple of threads on the Presidential election you might like to look at, one that I started before the first round, and another with the result of the first round in mind. Just try a search..

Expats, who are working/living abroad for a temporary period but keep their 'patria' unchanged might find the effects less than those of us who have emigrated, and thus are immigrants.

Hollande is less likely to be in favour of things like the AE scheme and small business, but is more likely to try a programme of mild economic stimulation.

He is also likely to be draconian on taxation.

Sarkozy is more likely to undertake more privatisation in things like the Health Service, and cut social security.

In either case France has a very difficult period ahead, helped to some degree by the relatively low level of personal debt, but there will be some major cuts in services ahead whoever gets in.

I have heard it said that France will become a giant Eurodisney inhabited by discontented whining adolescents.

That would be funnier if it wasn't already true.

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Personally I don't see what your worry is, after all would you leave the UK if there was a change of government? As far as I can see it doesn't matter who you vote for as very little changes. Mr Hollande? I think he has other things to worry about than a few thousand retirees. Remember France is part of Europe and the EU so apart from local taxes as long as France remains in the EU, and I believe that it's only the far right mob who wants to pull out, nothing much will alter. Are you sure that you're not just having second thoughts and looking for an escape clause from your plans. But as others on this forum will tell you I'm only a holiday home owner, so what do I know? If you are really that worried don't do it; or just let out your UK home; rent a properrty in France and see how it goes.
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According to this week's Economist, the plan drawn up for Hollande by Laurent Fabius includes:

30% reduction in pay for the president and all ministers;

25% rise in welfare benefit paid to families at the September rentrée;

3-month cap on petrol prices;

Right to retire reduced to 60 (from 62, as increased by Sarko) for some workers;

Limit of 20:1 for the ratio of bosses' to workers' pay;

Renegotiation of the European fiscal pact.

Supplementary budget in July with:

new top rate of 75% on households earning over €1million;

Extra inheritance tax on large estates;

higher taxes on large firms;

higher wealth tax - probably with lower limits than at present;

new banking rules;

recruitment of the first of the 60,000 new teachers that he has promised.

How much of this can be enacted will not be clear: however he will be under pressure to increase tax to cover his commitments from the Socialist side and under pressure to cut expenditure by the markets. His instinct seems to be to increase tax.

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I think that the decision as to whether to put the brakes on may be determined by your circumstances: if you are moving over and taking up residence in France and have significant savings and investments, you would be well advised to put some thought into shifting those into products which are not taxable in France, before you move. If you are buying a holiday home, then as long as it is not worth more than, let's say €750K (approx the old starting point for wealth tax), then other than local tax increases, you are probably not going to be affected.

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We could do with a crystal ball to answer this question. Suppose the euro collapses ? Will the pound come out better or worse ? If you are moving all your assets to France will it matter ?

Sorry OP I've just added to your questions, but I think they are worthy of consideration. I wish I knew the answers.

Hoddy
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And why are you wanting to move to France anyway? And what do you expect from France? And have you 'got to' move to France. As Norman said, some people chose to emmigrate, where as I never did, I knew I would return to England when my husband retired and in fact it was two years after he retired that we did.......... illness getting in the way.

If you speak good french and watch french news all the time, you'll have a pretty good idea as to what is happening on a general level, not obviously 'how' people live every day lives, which is quite different to holidaying as far as I am concerned.

If you feel uneasy, don't do it, just have holidays.

 

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You will see an increase in taxes all round, particularly local ones as many regions are controlled by the left who are spending money like it is going out of fashion. Though I am not sure that Sarkozy would have kept them down that much as he seems unwilling to cut into the huge French debt and inflated government spending in significant ways.
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Pickles mentioned:  30% reduction in pay for the president and all ministers;

 

 

Did they not get a huge increase not that many years ago, when they stopped the 'cash in envelope' payments, or were supposed to stop the 'cash in envelope' payments.

What can I say, if they reduce their pay, surely they'll just restart the cash payments again? Has this been mentioned? anyone know?

 


 

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[quote user="idun"]Did they not get a huge increase not that many years ago, when they stopped the 'cash in envelope' payments, or were supposed to stop the 'cash in envelope' payments.

What can I say, if they reduce their pay, surely they'll just restart the cash payments again? Has this been mentioned? anyone know?[/quote]

In the immortal words of one F Urquhart: "You might very well think that: I couldn't possibly comment" ...

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The thing is political reality and financial reality in  France as in the UK  are not in the same room together...There will be all sorts of promises to protect pensions ... living standards and to create a promised land by the  politically  minded  at the controls  ... Later will come the true position when the  financial reality hits home and  people  discover what living under a the new  regime is about .

I would not like to forcast if now is a good time to move to France .  I  would not like to say how things will turn out a year or two down the road in France anymore than any other EU country at this moment in time .. How France will fare depends on how well she gets on with Germany without Sarkozy at the helm.... Interesting times ahead I think . 

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I don't think it is a foregone conclusion at all.

I hope that there is a good turn out next Sunday, because no matter who gets voted in, I would prefer to see that the people had voted by ticking a box, but that's just me.

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If you are an early retiree and plan on using the AE regime as a means to join the French health system, then it might well be worth holding on to see if the AE system survives, or charges are increased to uneconomic levels.

Also if your net assets exceed euro 750k, you might be concerned to see what happens with wealth tax and if the between spouses exemption to inheritance tax is maintained.

With Hollande having over a 10% lead in the opinion polls, his victory seems the most likely scenario.
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And just how accurate were the opinion poles for the first round? [I]

I would not believe them if they said a candidate, no matter which had a 99% lead, I think they are no more than propaganda trying (and probably succeeding) to influence the voters.

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