Jump to content

breizh

Members
  • Posts

    240
  • Joined

  • Last visited

    Never

Everything posted by breizh

  1. The Euro won't crash, it will be around until the politicians say otherwise. However, the dynamics have changed, specifically the CDS rates on sovereign debt, and commercial bank debt, over the last 2-3 months. UK sovereign debt is now cheaper to insure than German bunds. French sovereign debt is 3.3%, UK sovereign debt 1.9%. These are market rates, decided by hardnosed credit insurers. Nothing to do with politicians, and certainly not swayed by political motives, or credit ratings. Even US debt is now cheaper than German debt to insurer. That bothers the Germans. These figures have a knock on, into the banking sector. You only have to look at the stock market hammering the likes of BNP, SocGen, Deutsche, etc have taken over the last few months. We've been doing a sweepstake on how long CA and Commerzbank will last before nationalisation. I've got last week of Sept for CA, and I'm well happy. Might get a little payout! Personally, I think the UK will be under enormous pressure to join the Euro from all angles in Europe. Dispite what the Brit press keeps telling you, the country is highly solvent, well capitalised, liquid and is highly rated by the CDS markets. I reckon Cameron could write his own entrance criteria, and get whatever he wants for the UK.It's not going to happen though, mores the pity. The Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting at the end of Sept is now critical. If they blow it, it will be a global recession. They always say the most powerful person in the Eurozone, in fact in Europe, is the editor of Bild, Kai Diekmann. He makes the Murdoch press look impotent. He chooses what to tell the German people. They tell Merkel what to do. At the moment, he is dreaming up ways to punish insolvent countries. A bit rich coming from the country which is responsible for the 3 biggest ever sovereign insolvencies, but that's never stopped Kai. He is also pushing for the return of the Deutsche Mar. Truly scary.
  2. If it was so easy[:D] Holiday letting contracts are based on the property not being the lettor's residence principal. It is nothing to do with the length of the contract. There is a standard scam during the holiday season, where homeless people take a holiday let, then refuse to leave. The courts will infer a standard furnished contract, and they can't be shifted! Neither can you change the duration of a standard letting contract. The duration terms are in the Code Civile, and that's that. Furnished 1 year, unfurnished 3 years. That said. We let several properties on standard contracts, and have never had any issues. Vetting tenents is critical. We only take people recommended by local family members. If you feel confident with the propestive tenent, go with it, but don't expect the French legal system to help you if it goes wrong.
  3. As a former Moss side resident, when at Uni, I never ever saw any criminality whatsoever. Read loads about in the papers though! After cannabis the drug of choice in France is heroin. Just check out your local salon de shoot, paid for by the Prefecture. I know where mine is, I know where it is Guingamp, one in Rennes, and Brest. There will always be clean needles, and a dealer on site! Check the local Gare, music bars, and by the tabac by the Lycee! Personally I have a phobia about needles. So, not for me!
  4. I can only assume what has been commonplace in big towns and cities for many years is spreading out? We live in a 3 floor flat, so not really an issue, as everyone is totally paranoid about letting anyone in the main door. Car-jacking, mugging, car crime, car torching etc seem very common. It's a affluent, middle class, Paris commuter satellite town. Probably akin to say, Weybridge. Sometimes it can seem more like downtown Kabul! Fortunately we're relatively young, and lived in some dodgy places, like Barcelona, so are pretty streetwise. We both been mugged a few times, but nothing serious. Off topic, I always wondered how a Dwarf, who has been in charge of crime matters for nearly 10 years, as Interior Minister and President, can sleep at night. Crime is up 55% in that period in France. In all other OECD (UK as well I guess) countries it is down by (on average) 40%. He aslo have twice as many law enforcement officers as Germany , and more than 3 times the UK.
  5. Casserole it for about 2 weeks. Red wine or cidre. It should be edible by then. It's a bit like bulletproof porc. I'd bin the bits, unless you've got dogs. FiL hunts, and brings them back. No one else in the missus' family will take it, including the MiL. I hate waste more than I hate sanglier, so it's kept for me. Sorry. I busted the myth that all frenchwomen can cook. Fortunately the englishman can cook, otherwise we'd starve.
  6. Spoke to the missus this morning who is visiting various friends in London. She hadn't seen any damage, though she'd seen it on television! She doesn't seem at all bothered, though of course we live near Paris, where this sort of thing happens so frequently it doesn't even make the news any longer.[:(]
  7. It was in hindsight a mistake that UK legislation forced GB to inform Parliament of the intended gold sale, thereby handing every dealer a gimme short sale. But, thems the breaks. If you look at the gold price for the previous 25 years, the price achieved was ballpark and allowed diversifaction into currency holdings. In retrospect the increase in purchasing power of middle class India for jewellery, and the development of ever faster processor chips, sent the gold price into the stratosphere. Then the Credit Crunch 1 & (now) 2, sent it into orbit. Other than having a malfunctioning crystal ball, and the incredible misfortune of not, at the time, having the gift of hindsight, I not sure how you lay this at GB's door. In hindsight a mistake? Yes. GB's fault? No. Blame UK legislation and Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, etc who all did exactly the same thing at the time. In fact Switzerland sold it's entire gold stock. Everyone was doing it, in retrospect they were idiots too? or just GB? At the time gold was a c*ap investment, and it seemed sensible to diversify government reserves. France bought Renault shares at EUR80, at the same time, now they are worth EUR30, that was their effort at diversification!  
  8. Pixmania is part of the Currys/Darty group. Forget what the call themselves these days. I think though Chancer that you've been in France long enough not to be surprised with what's happened. I think you'd have been surprised IF it had gone smoothly. France+Commerce+Internet=Absolute Disaster 
  9. [quote user="The Riff-Raff Element"][quote user="breizh"] Also, only looked at the Asset Books of the various banks, so anything you didn't want the EBA to see you just transferred into the Trading Book for the day. Effectively the banks bought it's own debts for the day out of their customers' money. [/quote] Can't get away with that sort of thing any more - auditors are more clued up than they used to be  [;-)] [/quote] Agreed. It was a lot more subtle, but the end result was the same, give me a bit of literary licence. I'm a humble Credit Manager, I look for these sort of things, I'm not brave enough to try to beat the rules, just IF I was going to do it, this is HOW I'd do it.............................[:D] Let's just pray the Hausfrau and the Dwarf are right. Can politicians beat global market forces? (PS ZERO bad debts in the last 5 years......................I'm good, really good[:D])
  10. [quote user="Rob Roy"] Isn't it amazing what you can read? We had a free (unsolicited) copy of "The Connexion" delivered this morning and I was browsing through it and saw a small item which started thus: "Four leading French banks have come out of the EU financial "stress" tests with flying colours and should be able to withstand the most severe financial crisis. BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BPCE (Banque Populaire-Caisse d'Epargne) passed the tests with an average top-class Tier One shareholder fund ratio of 7.5%. The regulator looked at the banks' books with an eye to the future, to see whether they were strong enough to stay solvent and withstand losses, and to survive even if the economy nosedived." It continues a bit more, but you get the idea. That article would suggest that these banks are in a strong position, but the OP posting seems to suggest something different, or am I not understanding this correctly?   [/quote] Looks more like a BdF press release[;-). If you go to the original EBA data. They all scraped in, falling in the 5-6% Tier 1 capital range (5% was the pass mark). The EBA stress test allowed Sovereign Debt at 100% value. Anyone want to guess what the really value of Greek debt is?[:D] Also, only looked at the Asset Books of the various banks, so anything you didn't want the EBA to see you just transferred into the Trading Book for the day. Effectively the banks bought it's own debts for the day out of their customers' money. It's old news anyway, you've only got to look at how the markets have hammered their share prices over the last few weeks. They have all got very nasty skeletons in their cupboards. BPCE owns Natixis, which specialises in lending to Southern European countries for infrastucture projects. Very nasty, and why BdF threw BPop and Cd'E together in the first place[:-))]. BNP has Dexia, which does the same[:-))] SocGen and CA just got greedy, and in too deep. Why do you think Sarko was so eager not to include compulsory haircuts on privately held Sovereign Debt? Answer: French banks would need to be nationalised, and recapitalised. And he hasn't got that sort of cash lying around[;-)] The German banks faired just as badly. Bizarrely, it was the Brit and Swede banks that did best. Probably because they have already taken their medicine[:D] What must be even more galling to the Dwarf is yesterday's IMF report on France, which wasn't very complimentary to the Govn. (to put it mildly). Report signed off by a certain Christine Lagarde[:D]
  11. an armoury of 400 Fagot missiles with fifty firing points, 30,000 AK-47 machine guns, 5,000 Katyusha rockets, 11,000 anti-tank rockets and 32 million rounds of machine gun ammunition [:-))][:-))] http://www.corriere.it/International/english/articoli/2011/07/19/disappeared-missiles-maddalena.shtml
  12. [quote user="Mr Valentine"]Can debts from england be registered against your assets in france or canthey make you sell your assets to pay off your debts[/quote] The simple answer is, probably Yes. Generally, if the creditor/s can find you, they can simply get the Judgement transferred to a French court for enforcement. Then it gets very complicated. UK or foreign debt? Consumer or Corporate debt? Secured or unsecured? County Court or High Court? What is the status of the regime under which the property is registered in France? I only deal with corporate debt litigation, so if it's consumer try someone else. If you provide more details I can be more specific with an answer. Please note our corporate policy is to persue all debtors, regardless of value, location, or personal circumstances. Very German.
  13. [quote user="Quillan"] The problem with Greece is that it's government has continually lied to it's people and the EU about it's deficit whilst spending money that it never had. A large percentage of it's workers work in the public sector and there is not enough workers in the private sector paying tax to pay the public sectors wages. Somebody explained it the other day in very simplistic terms. If you have a public worker on 10k per year and pays 25% tax he/she is really earning 7.5k per year so you need three private sector workers, each earning 10k per year paying 25% tax to pay his/her salary. Clearly when you have anywhere between 45 and 50% of your workforce in the public sector there simply is not enough in the private sector to pay their salaries. Then of course you have all the other things you need tax money to pay for so in reality you need a ratio of five private sector employees paying tax to every public employee. [/quote] Assuming the only tax paid by the populous is income based. So, we ignore TVA, plus valeur, fuel/alcohol/tobacco duties, corporation taxe, property taxes, etc, etc??[8-)] Interesting you should take as true the ramblings of a minor, ultra right-wing, political movement. Welcome to the home of Redneck, ultra christians, trust you feel completely at home. Don't forget your Bible, and your gun [:-))]
  14. Similar stories crop up from time to time regarding sans papiers.
  15. Reading his words carefully. He is correct on some aspects. Not sure I agree with his conclusions. The EUR has by default become a transfer union, channeling funds from rich countries to poor ones. This was specifically excluded, at Germany's insistance in the original monetary union treaty. The ECB is in breech of it's own instrument of incorporation. There is no default/insolvency/withdrawal process in the original treaty. Therefore there is an explicit guarantee of members' debts by all the members. If Greece were to leave, or default, that explicit guarantee will have proven to be illusory. Ireland and Portugal would quickly fail, Spain and Italy would fail, and then the next weakest member is France. If the weaker nations all fail, the ECB and virtually all the Eurozone commercial banks will require recapitalising, over and above the current level of Govn intervention. IF this scenario plays out to it's conclusion, France will default. Germany will not. This is a defining moment for the Eurozone. If they fail, the whole EU will fail, therefore UK has a vested interest in ensuring the Eurozone remains solvent. I certainly back whatever financial intervention is required by the UK. Please bear in mind, that dispite all the politically motivated parocial UK media comments, the UK is the most financially solvent of all the major economies in the EU. I think that may show just how bad the financial position of other member states is, particularly Germany and France.
  16. [quote user="Quillan"] Then there is the likes of Nissan and Toyota who it is alleged produce over 80% of their cars in LHD for export to the EU, shame the money goes of to Japan when the cars are sold. There's all the little companies in the UK that make the bits and bobs that go in to these cars. I believe you need 70% of the car to be sourced from withing the EU to make it an EU car although they don't benefit from the current exchange rates. Whilst not exporting directly their products nether the less are exported to the EU. I read somewhere that the EU has created between 3.5m and 4.0m jobs in the UK. [/quote] Not true. As with anything to do with multinationals production and finance, things are enormously more complicated than lazy journos make out. The sales entity is CarCo GB Ltd. The sale is then booked through that legal entity, either as a direct sale to the applicable foreign legal entity of CarCo GB Ltd , or via Transfer Pricing. Either way the full value of the vehicle is credited to CarCo GB Ltd. Tax is paid as applicable, NI and PAYE as applicable. The only "benefit" for CarCo Japan is if the vehicle imported into the sales sphere of CarCo Japan and they apply their local sales mark up. If you produce locally, you pay tax locally, and HMRC is red hot on Transfer Pricing. It would not be possible to divert products to a foreign legal entity under the true value of the product. Re the "little companies that make the bits and bobs". 86% of the sales price of a car are in the components. These are mega companies! And with JIT production, everything has to be produced locally, the suppliers hold the stock, but they will only hold a few days worth, certainly not even a week. 3 months on a boat from Japan is 10 years out of date. The only components shipped in from abroad, will be by airfreight. Small components like memory chips for electric seats, CPU and EMU components. The relatively small value of the labour costs into the sales price of a vehicle is why you haven't seen the mad rush to China, like the white goods manufacturers such as Bosch. Any Chinese factories are purely the service the Chinese market. I'll waffle on about Transfer Pricing at another time. Suffice to it is highly creative accounting, hence why national tax authorities look so carefully, historically it was the way profits were transferred to countries with generous corporate tax regimes. That all stopped about 10 years ago.  
  17. [quote user="NickP"]No different to parts of Liverpool, Manchester or London[/quote] You are SO wrong. Be grateful you don't get the IDF local TV news, there are 2-3 fatal shootings each days. In 1 month that is more than the whole of the UK gets in 1 year. Two 3 year olds were shot last week. Deliberately. Not by accident. The mother commited suicide. All because some gang wanted her flat as a salon de shoot. This is several levels above the worst the UK could get in it's worst nightmares.
  18. Bit of an old story. The Maire was on TV a couple of weeks ago. He did sound genuinely desperate, and totally bewildered about what to do. And the Police have withdrawn, so it is totally lawless. Reglement des comptes, rather than civil war.
  19. Not read it either! My wife has one, and loves it. Personally I prefer paper. Two issues she has, one is that although her first language is French, she prefers to read in English or Castellano. Choice here is not so great. Second, also won't apply in the UK, and that is the fixed book prices. I wonder if HADOPI applies to downloading books from foreign providers? Certainly it would be illegal under French law protecting creative works.
  20. The cameras are already in place, the political will is there, the collection method will be an extension of something else already in place. What's to stop it happening? There is probably just as many cameras de surveillance here as in the UK, but they are not so promenently on display. Personally, I think that is wrong, as it removes any deterent value. There was a police mouthpeice on TV a couple of days ago, saying how safe the A86 was now, as there was a camera every 80m. Can't say I've even seen one! Every public office and building seems to be plastered with them, once you've seen one, you'll start noticing them everywhere.
  21. There have been plaintes lodged. Suffice to say, the French justice would finish second in a race with an arthritic snail. Pray you never come into contact with it!! Makes sense to me to use another country where possible. I use Germany, or the UK, for all my corporate legal actions. The headline is highly misleading, NAY a lie. Note the penultimate paragraph. UK funding cannot be used for this case. If the legal team take it pro bono, fair enough, but they can't get funding via Legal Aid! NO THEY ARE NOT USING YOUR CASH..................not such a good headline.
  22. Kid stabs his former teacher in his home...........................................then goes to school, and guess what.........................gets arrested. He deserves life for being incredibly stupid, and patently will be safer in prison. http://www.leparisien.fr/yvelines-78/versailles-un-adolescent-arrete-apres-avoir-poignarde-son-ancien-prof-31-05-2011-1474846.php  
  23. Now I'm ging to shut up, and hope SNCF manage, for the first time in their miserable, overcharging lives, to run a train on time. Hasta lluego.
  24. When they tested the DNA found after the Omagh bombings, the 2 matches were a 14 year old Nottinghamshire boy, and an 86 year old great-grandmother from Glasgow. No measure of variance was recorded. They were guilty! Now convince me that DNA testing 200% accurate. Also bear in mind that it was Gary Gilmor, a convicted murderer, who was sentenced to life imprisonment, that overturned the US moratorium on the death penalty. He want to die, rather than spend life in prison. If you are going to go the "cost cutting" route, maybe you should consider that the vast majority of people sentenced to life imprisonment, would choose the death penalty if offered. They consider it a LESSER punishment. Society may not think that, but criminals do think that. Do you want to punish the purpetrator, or save a few quid? I would also suggest that you should reconsider imposing the death penalty for certain types of murder. Police, children. You either do it 100% or not at all. Otherwise society is making a statement that the lives of certain people are less valuable, and therefore when convicted of taking that life, then society will impose what it deems is a lesser punishment. I consider my life just as valuable as anyone elses, so don't include me, in this scheme!
  25. Anyone who has been through the legal education system in recent years gets a thorough grounding in the crime/punishment relationship. It is the fear of being caught that deters criminals in most cases, in some cases such as intra-family murder, that doesn't work either. Punishment makes society feel a sense of revenge and fulfilment. It doesn't actually deter future offenders. A silly example. Would you park on a double yellow line if you knew you weren't going to get caught? Most people would. Any punishment is irrelevant. Criminals never think they are going to get caught. Therefore the potential punishment is not relevant. We digress from the OP, and I am moving into areas which I try to avoid discussing.    
×
×
  • Create New...