breizh

One of the "officially" healthiest banks in Europe goes bust. And you wonder why we have little faith in what the ECA tells us?!!!! What I don't understand is why Ackermann didn't point this out. His bank gets hit because nobody believes the EU pile of poo. How we get BNP/CA/SocGen telling the world that the don't have to write down Greek Debt by more than 21%. Hands up. Who wants buy Greek Debt at 79%? 50%? 30%. Go on, give us a figure! Officially in France it is worth 79% of face value. Germany/ UK 40-50% as per UK/Grerman banks. Now tell me why French banks will be nationalised? Cloud cookooland?

Just check your drug packets. How many are produced by French companies. Then ask why?

There does seem to be a endemic problem with the French system. There was a period where they wanted to only pay the product costs of the drugs(!). then they just went on payment strike. We are the biggest global supplier of OTC (over the counter drugs), but our market is small in France. The local French companies have the market. Officially, I don't know why, anything else is supposition. There is no central purchasing in France. It is all locally, and again officially I know nothing. OTC is done a site, by site basis. A NICE based system has been mooted, but as yet got nowhere. Again officially I don't know why, and anything would be supposition. Why France pays twice as much as any other country in Europe would only be supposition.

I will declare an interest as one of the big drug companies. Here's the other side of the issue, the failure of cliniques and hospitals to pay for drugs. In rural areas and the south, 3-4 years for payment to be made to the drug companies. The bad debt rates and and write offs are 25-30%. NHS zero bad debt, NHS 45 payment days. Someone somewhere has to pay for that incompetance. Problem is as drug company is that you cannot refuse to supply. People will die. Hence they get held hostage.

The EUR was/is a political animal. However even the EUR can't buck the the markets. London trades every day the entire GDP of the entire EURzone. All my life and saving are in EUR. My job means I look atv the markets every minute. I'm scared. Dexia will go bust this week, and take BNP with it. Can The Dwarf find 20-30billion? I hope so, but I doubt it, the French deficiet makes the UK look like a breeze. I'm not sure the politcians have told the people just how serious this is. It really is The End of The World as you know it.

It changes year by year/region by region/commune by commune. I gave up years ago bothering outside of our area, I try to read whether more are expect, but as a default they all get 2 bisous.

[quote user="Quillan"] The problem is that most countries have to make far more cuts than they have already made to get out of debt. What politicians are doing is only cutting the amount they must borrow every year, they are making no attempt to pay off the total, accumulated, debt which runs in to trillions for each country. [/quote] Now we are into the Paradox of Thift as Keynes called it, though it goes back as far as the Bible. This is the unspoken elephant in the room.# Economics 101. On an individual basis saving (thift) is a good thing for Society. However if everyone does it, economic activity in Society ceases. Think of the world as a Society. On an individual basis countries saving money is good, if they all do economic activity ceases, globally.  With Thrift, savings increase. Therefore there is more to lend, except business doesn't want to borrow, as there are no consumers. Savings rates go negative. See Japan (-0.5%). With Thrift, less consumer demand. Therefore prices fall. Production and wages fall, deflation. Unemployment and loss of state revenue. Again, see Japan (250% of GDP sovereign debt) With Thrift, capital is exported. As there is no demand at home, banks transfer capital elsewhere, strengthrning future competitors. Again see Japan, and The Carry Trade. So in conclusion, we're all stuffed. The last time the globe was in this circle it didn't end well with certain Austrian.

I'm not saying anymore than it was a much larger animal, and still alive.

After a absolutely horrific experience, involving the preparation on one of the special courses, in a restaurant in Ghongzhou on a business trip. There is no way I would never, ever go into a Chinese restaurant in China outside of the tourist areas. I still have nightmares about what I saw. I actually walked out and refused allow my company to deal with that customer, purely for personal reasons. Very unprofessional. I get on fine with most of the industrial estate Chinese banquet type places.

Also noticed that Germany will nave a "say" in EFSF decisions. Is that effectively saying that the bail-outs will be controlled by Germany. Not sure The Dwarf will have seen that one coming, if he did then it's just a sop to the Bundestag, with no real teeth. If it is a veto, all hell will break loose in l'Elysee!

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,789074,00.html The Hausfrau got here najority, without rely on opposition support. Which would have triggered elections in Germany. You will see the queues at caisses in BNP/SocGen/CA/BPop/Cd'E reduce. The Dwarf gets the French banks bailed out without paying a sou. Some interesting political speak though. The fund will be leveraged into a TARP of around EUR2 trillion (strong suggestion: buy french bank shares[:D], they need the bail-out most). However, this merely papers over obvious fault lines between EU and national sovereignty issues. Presumeably there will be a new Eurozone treaty, ceding national tax and spending to the EU at some point. I'm sure the French will cede that to Bruxelles. Not! So, the faultlines remain. And where does this leave the non-Eurozone countries, Poland, Sweden, Danmark, UK. Between them, they have some serious economic clout. Relative to all Eurozone countries they are all strong, solvent, liquid................I say relative, despite what the UK media studies graduates keep telling you.

That is assuming there is no other tax income. So, we'll ignore TVA/Duty/Corp/etc. In your scheme, how does France maintain 40% of workers in the public sector? Or, are they going bust twice as fast as, paying twice as much tax as, or better at accounting than, your favored example? Maybe state workers get half the private sector average salary? I doubt that, as I know how much I get paid(private), and my wife(state) gets paid. She gets more compared to average salary, than a UK teacher. So genuine question.

Missus is out, and I logged on. Primarily interbank lending is short term, overnight, days, and is done though Singapore and Tokyo in Asia. The China investments are politically driven. They will buy sovereign debt to drive up currency, to maintain their competative advantage, ie buy Eurozone bonds to stop EUR falling against REM. (Personally, I think Peking will step in and start bottom fishing for prime EU corporate assets when they think they can get away with it.) China simply cashpools all their state industries, the figures the media love to quote are also required to finance industry as their banking system does not function in the same way as in the rest of the world. It should also be bourne in mind that the media constantly talks about the currency reserves they have. They never mention the sovereign debt, which is the world's 3rd highest, as you would expect in a country as this stage in it's economic development. Huge sums are borrowed in order to create that development. See also Brasil, SA, Russia, India. Haven't got time to quote the sources, but FT Deutschland, The Economist, PWC, HSBC Corp and Sumitomo Matsui are always good for this sort of stuff. The free stuff is always miles out of date, and so shallow as to be onnly any use to misinform. Sorry, bedtime. Bon soir.

[quote user="Quillan"] Also, if this sort of comment is correct why did France and Germany have really good gains on their stock markets yesterday rather than everything collapsing around their ears and why has the Euro not collapsed aganst the Dollar and the Pound, I mean if these people are correct then you would be getting around 2 Euros for every pound and about three for every Dollar. [/quote]   Well the the Eurozone banking liquidity system has collapsed. No one will lend to DE/FR banks. There has been a complete collapse in confidence in the solvency of Eurozone banks by UK/US/Asia, hence liquidity disappears. FR/DE banks are, always have been, almost 100% reliant of US for their liquidity (short term funding), and reliant on UK for bonds. The answer why all of a sudden things looks rosy, is that the ECB promised to print EUR 2Trillion to leverage the ESFS that they can take first hit on sovereign debt default. Effectively the French banks will sell their Greek/Irish/Portugese/Spanish/Italian sovereign debt at face value to the ESFS. Eurotaxpayers pick up the bill in higher taxes, inflation and lower growth. Very clever move. Should be interesting when the Bundestag vote on it on Thursday. The Hausfrau has a majority of 20. 12 of her own party have already said they will vote against, so she still up, but watch this space! The rats seem to be deserting her sinking ship. Interestingly, this "bad bank" is exactly what Gordon Brown and Alaister Darling did back in 2008, for which they were so heavily critised, and lost an election. Take all the c*ap out of the banking system, stick into a taxpayer funded scheme and kickstart bank liquidity. UK Tarp cost GBP 50billion. EU Tarp will cost EUR 2 Trillion. Wish I was a UK taxpayer, it will cost EU a fortune in 2-3 years time. However, The Dwarf and The Hausfrau have only got to get through next year, and their respective elections. After that, who cares! Vis-a-vis Forex rates. There is no logic, the connection with interest rates, balance of payments, economic growth, disappeared years ago. Try PPP's method[8-)] Edit for wrong smiley[;-)][;-)]

Yes delay, but surely with the timescale before the Presidentials, effectively it's a block.

At least it put paid to the arch facist Le Pen. She looked good until about 3-4 months ago. Keep an eye on her though. If she looks like getting in, I suggest that French back flips on healthcare for you lot, will look like chicken feed, it's just the start.......if you aren't white and French...............go home. Seems to be her only policy.

Surprised nobody has mentioned this as it looks like the Dwarf is now a lameduck President, as the Communist/Socialist coalition now has control of the upper house, effectively blocking anything he might want to do. You can check your dept senators here................ http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/departement-par-departement-qui-sont-vos-senateurs-25-09-2011-1624861.php From a political point of view, in the run up to the elections, it might work in the Dwarf's favour. He can put any populist/pro-capitalist/property owning policies he wants through the lower house, the upper house blocks it, he blames them, and he picks up a few votes. Does not bode well if he was to win(stop laughing! Elvis is still alive!), absolutely nothing will get passed.

Ha. Just checked on Google. I'm right, however CH was part of EFTA but didn't join EEA. Presumably to faciliate the suitcases full of cash being lugged over from Germany and France.

EC is the European Commission. Effectively the EU Civil Service I think the EEA is the old EFTA. The EU countries + Iceland Switzerland and Norway. Basically use EU rules, but opt out of Fish&Ag. How'd ah do?

The only view I have is that this sort of action by a state only gives the accused a platform, or chance to be a martyr, thereby achieving the exact opposite of what the state professed to want to achieve. Oxygen of publicity? Or a desire to draw attention to oneself? Proudly boast I'm more devout than you? Does it matter? Yes it does now, 12 months ago it didn't. Now the nutters have a cause. True cases of indoctrination will only be addressed with education, and time, not the Dwarf scoring cheap political points.  They will refuse to pay. Appeal all the way through the French legal system (if they are not dead of old age by then), and end up in the ECHR, where they will win.

http://www.leparisien.fr/seine-et-marne-77/meaux-deux-femmes-condamnees-pour-port-du-niqab-sur-la-voie-publique-22-09-2011-1620177.php I live there, but don't recall anything about the arrests appearing anywhere. Also they're not locals. Meaux is a big Muslim area, over 50%, but never seen a burqa, or niqab.

Won't be next year Normie. Check your calender. The Dwarf will shuffle the provebial deckchairs on the Titanic around, and hope to get reelected (stop laughing at the back). 2013, I'd guess. Wonder what he will promise BNP to back off for 12 months. Cynic? Moi? I married a French politician's daughter.[:-))][:-))]

Dexia is part of BNP. For some reason, to which I admit I have never got a straight answer, Dexia, though a Belgium domiciled bank, lent in USD* and CHF*. The loans were taken out tied to CHF, as it was deemed more stable to EUR. CHF went through the roof. The cost of the loans went into the stratosphere. On the news there have been stories of communes paying 70% interest/annum, on 10 year loans, with the interest being 5 times the total tax take of the commume[:@] Snake oil salesmen pedalling products the customers never understood, allied with the traditional french brown envelope under the table[:@] If this was happening anywhere else it would headline news. As normal in France, the boys from the Grandes Ecoles sweep it under the carpet, cheerfully abetted by their poodle press, and the merrygoround of Finance Ministry fonc job, to bank exec job, continues.[:@] * Could be due to the long time lack of liquidity in French banks, and therefore having to borrow short term for the US and Switzerland. Lending in the currency they were borrowing in ensured Dexia/BNP doesn't get hit by forex losses, the borrower takes the hit. Evidence: The catastrophic collapse of the French banks share prices over the last few weeks, as the US/CH refused to continue funding, due to the to lying gits at the banks pretending their Sov/Comm loans in the weaker Eurozone countries were all fully covered. So, now the ECB has to borrow the USD/CHF to lend to the French banks. Sorry, for the rant, but about 2 months ago on page 5 of our local (Meaux) paper there was a paragraph, explaining that our ville had such a hole, and taxes will rise to cover it. Presumeably the Editor didn't think it was front page news[:@] Everything that is SO wrong about France in a nutshell.  

Good to see Mr Peston keeping up at the back. Only about 2 weeks out of date. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14896685  

Yes. After Weber going, for the same reason, the Hausfrau must be getting very worried. Scares the living daylights out of me that the Hausfrau and the Dwarf aren't going to do anything, whatsoever, as the are both up for election next year.