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breizh

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Everything posted by breizh

  1. Would appear the Vikings are likely to be in the Saxon corner http://www.thelocal.se/37764/20111206/
  2. [quote user="BIG MAC"] The eurozone seems to be disappearing up its own bottom (Not sure why other that their debts seem to be even hairier than the UKs) Merkel made probably the bigget economic mistake of the 21st century, when she forced private lenders to take a reduction on Greek debt. Guess what! Now no private lender will lend to any country in EZ, for fear of not getting their money back (that's the simple version). And why hidden away in last weeks EU deal was the guarantee that private lenders will not suffer anymore. Just the taxpayers! Who the h3ll have they borrowed the money from? is it a Country? (Not America it has its own poison debts) ... Money markets. Pension funds to you. Mainly US/UK/CAN/AUS, then much, much smaller, sovereign wealth funds. Note the statement often quoted in the media "The US's biggest overseas creditor is China". Over 75% of the debt is owned by it's own citizens. In EZ the debt tends to be to be banks in the EZ, hence why pretty well all of them are insolvent (simple version) The British taxpayer owns a large part of Banks which by virtue of not going down the toilet...must be making profits.... Making big trading profits, but after write-offs, nope. What on earth is going on?? and will my pound ever get back to buying me two euros? Nope. [/quote]
  3. Rest assured countries with big nationalist parties like the Netherlands, Finland will have noticed. There is also the question of regional elections in countries like Spain. Will the rules apply to the Generalitat in Catalunya? Gawd help the EU if they even think about messing with nationalist of that ilk.
  4. Couple of points. If the new Euro-Plus fiscal union adopts its planned restrictions on taxation and spending, you could easily imagine a future election in which one party's manifesto, stimulus policies and tax-cuts, is run through a think-tank's calculators and discovered to be euro-incompatible. Meanwhile a rival party's plan fits the criteria handed down from Brussels. At which point, it will surely be argued, it is pointless to vote for the first party, because the fiscal union will stop them from doing what they promise. The EU has totally removed the democratic element from future elections with regard to tax and spend policy. I don’t loke that.   The UK PM wanted protection from EU regulation of London-based financial institutions that do not trade with the rest of Europe. Due to the financial world being English speaking, London is the global centre for most banks, even if they don’t trade in Europe, or even the UK. The EU would have taken global.control of insurence, forex, money markets, etc. It would have control, and dictate policy to the world. I don’t like that   What the UK PM was actually asking for was was in part democratically legitimate sensible. Does the EU have the right to select which party wins an election in say Sweden? Does the EU have the right to dictate to say, a Chinese bank, that trades solely in China, but has to have a UK presence for strategic investment reasons? I think he should have asked for specific exemptions, maybe. But he overplayed his hand when asking for unanimity voting. Effectively giving any country a veto in the future. Over the weekend the German/Spanish/French press have been quite hostile to what Merkozy have done. Most of the participants in the deal do not seem 100% willing. It should be interesting to see what happens in say the Netherlands, over the next few weeks.   What will actually appear in the end, nobody has a clue. They have not talked about specifics. As always it will be a camel, or horse designed by a committee. Meanwhile away from the front pages the ECB completely switched on the printing presses by throwing money at the EZ banks, and lowering the asset security levels required. EZ debt problem hoisted 1 generation down the line. Was this a deal?   Seems the money markets weren’t overly impressed. Borrowing for EZ is still dead.
  5. Danes have NOT signed up, despite reports http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/ECE1474919/eu-thorning-we-havent-decided-yet/ Swedes aren't joining in either http://www.thelocal.se/37838/20111209/# I can't find an English version, but the Dutch and the Finn PMs are moaning. They need to sort this out, and fast, before the markets open next week.
  6. No fan of Mr Smug, but Mr Peston cuts to the chase http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16109444 NB the big bank he alludes to is German, not French.
  7. The EUR200billion to the IMF, has been stated by it, to be lent to EZ country banks, precisely because the ECB cannot lend to those banks due to it's Constitution.  
  8. The Bond markets and Forex markets haven't gone for the "deal". The Swedish PM, and Polish PM are both quoted in the last hour as saying it will fail. Not the best PR! The cost of EZ borrowing has increased. http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Markets/Government-Bond-Spreads Quillen, all currencies, except EUR have a central bank, that ultimately stands behind default. The ECB is specifically (on DE instruction) not allowed to fulfil that obligation, neither is it allowed to lend to countries. It does get round this by guaranteeing to lend 100% of the sovereign Bond value purchased by a private sector bank, so the ECB could get Greek debt as collatoral for a loan! Guess where all the trillions of dodgy loans are now! The punchup between the Hausfrau and the Dwarf over the last few weeks was precisely because he wanted the ECB to become a central bank, and in effect bailout France. Merkel said NO!, because she knew Germany would end up paying for everything! She won, and the Dwarf lost, he has to do his 3rd/4th/5th (can't remember) emergency austerity budget. It is worth pointing out that Credit Rating is reactive. The agencies are only allowed access to public record information, market information, etc. and they react to this. An example would be today's downgrade of French banks. The markets over the last few weeks had already done the dirty and turned the shares into virtual junk. The downgrade wasn't because Moody's knew something they didn't, it was merely reacting to what everyone already knew. SocGen says in it's audited accounts, that it is worth 82billion, the share price says "B*llocks, with all those dodgy loans, you are actually worth 18billion". Moodys reacts to that. They do not "make" the news themselves. I think the media totally overhypes the power of CRAs. (Yes, I use them, but only because the credit insurers demand it, and there's a cozy cartel!)      
  9. Don't get UK TV, so can't comment. Presumably it was Mr Smug Peston? Little indepth analysis, but pitched at a superficial level, to entertain and "educate"?!! Excessive banking behaviour is a symptom, it is not the disease. Everyone played their part. All of us. No one questioned where the 10/20/30% returns on investments were coming from. No one questioned why their house equity had skyrocketted. They just enjoyed. Cashed in, retired early, and never thought there was anything wrong. The banks created your wealth directly, and indirectly. A 50-95% cut in all asset values? Your house, business, pension, investments, salary? It's not politically acceptable, but they created your lifestyle. Only 5% of global wealth really exists. The rest is leveraged by the banks. It is not real. But, we rely on it. As a historical note, both Venice and Victorian England managed to leverage even higher, 3%!!
  10. Yep, that's us, and not ashamed of it[:D] Season ticket holder when I was at Manc Uni in the 90s. Dad was a Citeh fan. Yep, we're rich. Tough. Get over it. We can buy who we want, pay them whatever they want. Every litre of fuel you buy is money towards buying Messi. Stuff Platini, we'll just shove the debt back via a rights issue. 20 years of NFL ownership would suggest the owners are longterm. Anyway, why should I care? Not my money, and we had our time back in the sunshine.  
  11. If you were born in Manchester you would understand this as possible the most important event in your life to date. Bigger for me than getting married. Bigger than my England (Age Grp) Rugby cap. Bigger than any yotting Champs. Bigger than anything that is really, really big. Pity we're not playing ManUre at the Theatre of Screams again.
  12. All EZ nations put on notice of rating downgrade. France 2 notches. Greece and Cyprus not put on notice................for obvious reasons! http://www.leparisien.fr/crise-europe/en-direct-le-sommet-europeen-examine-a-la-loupe-par-standard-poor-s-06-12-2011-1755259.php Putting them on notice of a downgrade seems so obvious as not to require a press release. So why, so close to the summit? Maybe, I'm cynical, but I get a whiff of conlusion with the Hausfrau. Puts everyone on notice that is the last chance to agree to what she wants, or else! Is this summit more Euroboll*x? I sincerely hope not, or that will 5 summits of BS in a row. (Must admit, we now cashpool in UK banks!)
  13. France calculates tax against global assets. So you'll probably incur ISF. Income tax. Cotisation against the turnover of any business(es) you conduct from France. Private healthcare, unless you do have a business. Insurence to cover the 30% of healthcare costs the state doesn't pay, even if you do work. 2 local taxes, depending on area can be less, or significantly more, than UK local tax. You are probably the only person with those sort of assets/income moving to France! All the French are running away to BE/CH/UK! This is the country that invented stealth taxes, and perfected the art donkeys years ago! My payslip, like normal french workers is 2 pages of closely typed A4, line by line detailing the 43% they steal at that time, then there is the annual declaration that is another 10-12% on top. Are you starting to get the picture! (Last time I paid tax in the UK, I paid 33%. Had a pay freeze now for 4 years, so not earning anymore.)
  14. A rumour has been doing the rounds that a certain French bank went insolvent yesterday. Hence the concerted central bank action. It is true. BdF was unable to to refinance the bank (bail  it out).....................France has too much debt! Yes, it is true, and I will NOT (even by PM reveal the name). Please be aware that the global banking system stands behind the French system, and as such it is bulletproof. 100%.
  15. Not sure Angela Sarkozy have seen anything yet. The Swedes, Brits, Danes are going to want their pound of flesh. As soon as they start amending treaties the genie is well and truly out the bottle, and the law of unintended consequences comes into play.
  16. One thing the Brits should thank Gordon Brown for..............(YES!)..................he borrowed long term, very long. France is on average 3.2 years. UK 17.8 years. So, into the current mealstrom, and frozen credit markets. France has to borrow 480billion next year. UK.........186billion. Gordon Brown stepped away from the "cheap, easy" money, available in the good times, and thought long term. Unfortunately Mde Legrande didn't, and b*ggered France. Guess who is vilified? Guess who is the boss of the IMF?[:)]  
  17. [quote user="Jon 1"][quote user="breizh"]3 Key dates. Jan 9. France has to borrow EUR 29billion Jan 30. Italy has to borrow EUR 32billion Feb 28. Italy has to borrow EUR 46billion Very scary, considering what happened last week when Germany failed to get EUR 6billion!! I doubt the Dwarf will sleep well over Noel.[/quote] References?[/quote] http://www.economist.com/node/21540259 The only free one I could find.
  18. [quote user="Jako"]The need for a "will the pound crash in 2012" topic might come soon... Anyone read the tulletprebon project armageddon (click) report? [/quote] Possibly the most bizarrely written piece of "research" I've ever read, and I read hundreds of them! Politicised, personalised, dramatic, only uses uncheckable in-house "data", no references, written like cheap thriller. Binned.
  19. There have been a few crimes which have truly appalled me. I can think of one while I lived in BCN, and the Jamie Bulger case in the UK, but I can think of 4-5 in France. The level of inhumanity I just find incomprehensible, to the point I can only feel pity for the accused, rather than revulsion, or a desire for revenge. This case is one of those crimes. (Maybe it will there will be an English link tomorrow, somewhere, as I am surprised no one noticed this, or the Agnes case.)
  20. [quote user="woolybanana"] The money involved in saving the banks is peanuts compared to the unimaginable sums being spent on bloated and sick state in its various forms. How many billion wasted in defence contracts, NHS layers and layers of management and salaries, gold plated pensions for the entire state apparatus, including MPs, contributions to Europe, an utterly discredited benefits system......? Screwing the bankers is fine and I would alaways agree with fair taxation for all, but the idea that huge swathes of the population should think it is their right to live off the back of the taxpayer is no longer acceptable; by all means help those in need. And let government in all its forms remember that taxation and spending are not a right but a privilege - which has been abused for far too long. [/quote] WOW, and you live in France!
  21. 3 Key dates. Jan 9. France has to borrow EUR 29billion Jan 30. Italy has to borrow EUR 32billion Feb 28. Italy has to borrow EUR 46billion Very scary, considering what happened last week when Germany failed to get EUR 6billion!! I doubt the Dwarf will sleep well over Noel.
  22. All the UK pension funds? 5 times the firepower of the Chinese cashpooling!
  23. http://www.leparisien.fr/crise-europe/zone-euro-merkel-sarkozy-et-monti-reunis-23-11-2011-1735174.php What's really on the agenda? Will the Hausfrau agree to common eurobonds? Will the Dwarf allow a Teutonic takeover of national fiscal and finance policy? Yesterday's failure of Germany's bond sale, and the change in yield might mean someone already knows the answer?
  24. And the Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/11/euro-crisis-16 I would not disagree with the final paragraph. The politicians (Merkel) created this crisis, by insisting private lenders took a hit on Greek debt. The lenders then realised their investments in EZ were not bulletproof, and stopped lending. Doh! Is she a complete numpty? They can still (hopefully) fix the problem.
  25. [quote user="Quillan"]Problem with comments like you find in these articles is that they are aimed to alarm. Try looking at historical exchange rates for the Euro/Dollar. The dollar has gained a little ground but still is no where near the level it was at the end of 2010 i.e. 1.44 or 2008 when it was in the 1.57's. It's all relative and also depends on what reference point these so called 'experts' are using. To me things have got to get a lot worse for the Euro or more accuratly a lot better for the dollar before you need to start panicing but then thats no fun I guess.[/quote] It's a long time since forex rates were connected to economic reality! They are so easy to manipulate. Try the bond markets. http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Markets/Government-Bond-Spreads You will note the EZ(inc DE) members all have higher yields than the non-EZ countries (SE/CH/DN, and good ole bankrupt Britain). So we have the Med countries borrowing costs at unsustainable rates. We have FR and BE close to the borderline. This is THE crisis. The EZ have bought it on themselves. What was an irritation is now a full blown crisis. EZ banks cannot get funds from bonds or interbank, they are down to liquidity swaps, borrowing good assets from insurers, etc (note the collapse in the AXA/Allianz share prices) which are then accepted by ECB as collaterol. A German take on the crisis http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,799397,00.html Where this will lead is anyone's guess, but a lot of very clever people have started to bet on a possible collapse of EUR. Personally, I don't see it. Business in Europe will effectively cease to function, with the mass unemployment that will bring. Let's hope the political will is there.
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